Oklahoma State's Road to the National Championship.. (yikes)

Okay ya, so this isn't going to happen. In fact, there is a much better chance of the BSDITS losing their last 3 games and disappointing us all than making it all the way to #1 or #2 in the BCS Standings... but as a blog writing type of dude, there are so few chances for me to write something along these lines, and right now it technically isn't completely insane for me write this.... technically.  And since this may be one of my few chances, I am taking it. Anyway, it really just functions as a way to view the BCS top 11... just through orange tinted glasses.
(and that paragraph takes care of anyone accusing me of jinxing us by writing this... I am saying that it is MORE likely that we finish 0-3... remember that)

So what would have to happen for Oklahoma State to end up in the BCS Title game in Arizona?

First, obviously the BSDITS have to win out. Secondly, it would help a lot if our opponents would win every game they play that is not against another one of our opponents (sorry, I could think of no better way to word that sentence). And thirdly, we need some teams to lose.  Since #1 is so obvious, let's take a look at #2 and #3.

Let's start with #2 and the one assumption that needs to be made here.  If our opponents win the rest of their games (where it's possible), let's assume that Oklahoma State's SOS that is #32 right now would end up being between #10 and #15. Based on games @UT, @KU, OU, NU I don't think that SOS number is unreasonable.... and one of the few things helping us in this quest is that we are one of the few teams out there playing 3 tough teams at the end of our schedule.

So let's take a look at the top 11...the teams that could finish ahead of the Cowboys for the #2 spot.

  BCS   Harris     Coach   Computer  polls            
RK TEAM AVG PVS RK PTS % RK PTS % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Oregon 0.9638 1 1 2820 0.9895 1 1463 0.9919 3 4 5 4 2 2 3 0.91
2 Auburn 0.9611 2 2 2684 0.9418 2 1389 0.9417 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
3 TCU 0.9259 3 3 2620 0.9193 3 1340 0.9085 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 0.95
4 Boise State 0.8662 4 4 2585 0.907 4 1330 0.9017 5 5 3 5 8 10 7 0.79
5 LSU 0.817 10 6 2221 0.7793 6 1153 0.7817 4 3 4 3 4 6 4 0.89
6 Stanford 0.7454 13 8 2134 0.7488 9 1058 0.7173 6 9 13 8 5 4 5 0.77
7 Wisconsin 0.7349 9 5 2229 0.7821 5 1184 0.8027 10 14 9 14 9 8 10 0.62
8 Nebraska 0.7298 7 9 1984 0.6961 8 1067 0.7234 6 7 8 7 7 5 6 0.77
9 Ohio State 0.6613 11 7 2145 0.7526 7 1123 0.7614 15 13 14 12 19 18 12 0.47
10 Oklahoma State 0.6211 17 13 1508 0.5291 11 832 0.5641 6 6 10 6 6 7 8 0.77
11 Michigan State 0.618 14 10 1682 0.5902 10 876 0.5939 9 8 12 9 10 9 9 0.67

The main thing to note right off the bat is that the computers like us a lot.  If the rankings were completely computer based (instead of 2/3s biased a-hole based) we would be tied for 6th, which seems like a reasonable position to make a push for the #2 spot.  So what needs to happen to everyone for us to move all the way up from #10 to #2?

  1. We ain't passing Oregon. Their remaining games are @Cal, Zona, @Oregon State. Can't see them losing two of those (or one for that matter)... and even a one-loss Oregon team would easily stay in front of the Pokes.
  2. Auburn gets declared ineligible because Cam Newton murdered a vagabond, then resuscitated him and murdered him again because he wasn’t sure the homeless man was awake the first time. Or they could lose to Alabama AND lose in the SEC championship game. Either option helps us.
  3. TCU has to lose tomorrow at home vs San Diego State. SD State is sneaky good and could surprise the Frogs... but this upset happening is probably the longest shot on the board of all the non-Oregon things we need to happen.  The Frogs only other remaining game is on the road versus New Mexico who is fresh off their first win of the season over Wyoming.  Unfortunately, people love TCU (and I admit that they do look like the real deal) so we aren't passing an unbeaten TCU team. However I'm not sure that the same can be said for.....
  4. Boise State.  Odds are an unbeaten Boise stays ahead of us (especially with a win over #21 Nevada on Thanksgiving weekend), but if Oklahoma State can improve their profile with HUGE wins in these last 4 games (@UT, @KU, OU, NU), the voters will have a hard time ignoring an OSU team that the computers have at #2 while they have Boise at #6 or so.  Really though it would be better for Boise to lose to Nevada. 
  5. LSU. Now the one loss teams come into play, and the needed outcomes become a lot less absurd. LSU finishes with Louisiana Monroe, Ole Miss, and @Ark. It doesn't take much imagination to see Les figuring out a way to drop one of those. 
  6. This Stanford thing kinda sucks.  Out of all the one-loss teams they definitely have the inside/easiest track to the title game should 3 of the 4 unbeatens go down.  They finish with @ASU, @Cal, Oregon St, which will hurt their #16 SOS a little.. but with their only loss coming versus the #1 team in the nation, I think the voters will love them too much to put us in over them. So we probably need a Stanford loss.
  7. Nebraska. Beating them in the Big XII championship game would take care of them.
  8. The three Big 10 teams. Their terrible SOS and relatively weak remaining schedules make it so Oklahoma State should easily pass them should we win out. Here are their current SOS's, and their remaining opponents: Wisconsin (#70, Indiana, Mich, Northwestern). Ohio State (#87, PSU, @Iowa, Mich). Michigan State (#71, Purdue, @PSU).  Out of all those, Ohio State is the only one improving their SOS the rest of the way.
    And here is the hypothetical part where we would have to start bitching about the voters.  For those that don't know how the BCS rankings are figured out... the 3 percentages you see above (Harris, Coaches, Computers) are averaged together to come up with a total average ranking, then each team is ranked according to those averages of the percentages.  What you will notice about the Harris and Coaches polls is that there is a HUGE (ALL CAPS) drop from Ohio State and Wisconsin to Oklahoma State, even though we have played the much tougher schedule to this point.  I have to think that the voters will have to stop this nonsense should the Cowboys really put it to OU and Nebraska, but right now there is a lot of ground to make up. The only schools in the top 50 that have SOS's in the 70's and above are the non-AQ schools and the Big 10 schools... so right now voters are voting based on half-formed opinions.  But once that hypothetical last week gets here, and they realize that their votes determine who goes to the championship game, I think they would re-evaluate and put the Pokes ahead of these Big 10 teams.

So there it is.  The most fanatical, insane, optimistic, boner-inducing post in the history of this site. I hope it was worth this being linked all over and used as a reference point for BSDITS fans being lunatics.

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