Oklahoma State Football: Game Pods and Predictions
by samuelbryant on Aug 28, 2010 10:12 AM CDT
in Oklahoma State Cowboys Football
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PrintTime to start getting hyped y'all (do we still say that? Did we ever say that?). Students are back, the weather has turned to "bearable", and football is back in seven days! In honor of all of this, I figured it was time to make a win/loss prediction for the 2010 season.
Before I just jump into this, I should mention that I am not a big fan of straightforward predictions. I kinda feel like it is completely worthless in August for me to say; "O-State will for sure beat A&M, lose to Nebraska, upset OU, etc." since we have no idea what those teams, or our team, will be like. What I prefer to do is something that is slightly less worthless, and divide the games up into pods of games that share similar characteristics, or might be interrelated somehow, then assign a record to that pod. So it's a way to sorta stay out of the corner, while still making a season win/loss prediction. It's kinda P.
| Pod 1 | The Slam Dunk Win Pod |
|---|---|
| Desc. | This is the pod made up of games that Oklahoma State would win at least 9 out of 10 times. Sure crazy upsets happen and shit can go wrong, but these are the games where something would have to REALLY go wrong for us to lose. (Note: this group is smaller than in recent years) |
| Games | Washington State, Troy, Tulsa |
| Notes | I could easily be convinced to pull Tulsa out of here and into the next pod. Their gimmickyness scares me a little. The other two I consider to be no-doubters. |
| Record: | 3-0 |
| Pod 2 | The Baylor Pod |
|---|---|
| Desc. | Baylor gets it's own pod this season. |
| Games |
Baylor |
| Notes | They are a scary team, and will probably pull off some decent wins this season, but being that it is at home, and that we seem to match-up very well with with them, I have a lot of confidence in this game. Basically I feel like this game is a win, but Baylor is a little too good to stick into the slam dunk pod. Way to get your own pod Baylor! |
| Record: | 1-0 |
| Pod 3 | The Trap Game Pod |
|---|---|
| Desc. | Just what it sounds like. Games that could almost fit into Pods 1 or 2, but because of where they fall on the schedule, the conditions surrounding the game (location, odd day), or potential match-up problems, they fall under the trap game heading. Talented, young, inexperienced teams are more prone to trap games. |
| Games | @ULL, @Kansas State, @Kansas |
| Notes | I think @ULL is obvious, and sandwiched between A&M and Tech, it is pretty much the definition of a trap game. Then there are the two road games in Kansas... really a bad break in scheduling. Neither of these teams are scary on their own, but I don't like the idea of playing two "looking to make a splash"/rebuilding Kansas teams on the road. Also, @ Kansas falls between Texas and OU on the schedule. I think one of these games will get us. |
| Record: | 2-1 |
| Pod 4 | The I'll believe it when I see it Pod |
|---|---|
| Desc. | Match-ups that are just historically terrible for the Cowboys. Maybe you can make a case for winning these games based on the on-field matchups, but we have made that argument many other seasons, yet the results never seem to change. |
| Games |
@Texas Tech, @ Texas |
| Notes | Oklahoma State in Lubbock: 2-13-3, last win in 1944, last tie in 1956, lost 9 in a row. Oklahoma State in Austin: 1-16, only win in 1944, lost 11 in a row. So unless it is 1944, let's not plan on either of these wins until a streak is broken. |
| Record: | 0-2 |
| Pod 5 | The Potential Home Upset Pod |
|---|---|
| Desc. | Teams that are ranked better than us, have more potential heading into the season, and will be favored in the matchup, but the games are at home, and each game has some factors that our in our favor. |
| Games |
Texas A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma |
| Notes | While A&M is the "darling" heading into the season and I'll admit, they do look to be loaded... the scheme change raises legitimate questions about the defense, and the offensive line is unsettled with new guys playing in new places. Thursday Night game in Stillwater with both teams looking to impress on national TV, this game will be huge... and I'm not ready to give anything huge to Sherman and Johnson until I see it happen. (was that sentence sexual?) If Nebraska can move the ball, I will give them the win in Stilly. But I wouldn't count on Oklahoma State being held under 20 points all season, and right now I can't guarantee that Nebraska can score 20 on the road in the Big XII. As for the Sooners, I will always leave the door open for a Bedlam win at home, no matter how lopsided the teams (not that I think this years teams are lopsided, just making the statement). |
| Record: | 1-2 (I am really tempted to make this 2-1.. I am feeling some home upsets this season) |
So what is that.. 7-5? Ya... 7-5. Which seems about right when you go game by game. On the surface I like to say we are an 8 win team, but when I actually go through the schedule, 7 probably feels more right. Now of course all this will change, A&M could come in with a loss, Baylor could come in undefeated, and Nebraska fans could waltz into Stillwater all svelte and tan. But for right now, these are my pods, and 7-5 is my feeling. Argue away. Name calling and sexuality questioning is encouraged.
10 comments
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2 recs |
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Comments
While I excell at sexuality questioning,
I’ll argue that we will win 8 games. And I believe it will come from the trap games pod. I don’t think ull, no matter how fired up, can beat us. I also believe we will win at tech, based solely on the fact I hate tech and their hot hot coed tail.
by AUKingOState on Aug 28, 2010 11:23 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I can see 8 wins. I just cant get it out of my head that we will drop at least one that we shouldn’t.
by samuelbryant on Aug 28, 2010 5:45 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
this is now my preferred method of game prediction
I will now use it as my own.
Nice post. This would cause 300+ comments on some of the other sites I’m on.
Rec’d
Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK
Thanks man.
With the site being a whole two weeks old, I’m not sure we could get 300 comments if we had scarlet johanson upskirts… not that it will stop my quest to get some.
by samuelbryant on Aug 28, 2010 4:58 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
It is a great method, but,
It’s no Scarlett johanson upskirt. But it’s close.
by AUKingOState on Aug 28, 2010 5:22 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
We will dominate the state of Kansas...
and send Snyder out on a stretcher with a broken hip in the process.
Allright, home finally. Let me try this
Slam Dunk Win:
Baylor, WSU, Troy, Tulsa, and @Kansas State
I dont care how much better Baylor may be, for the past three years, every year has been the year they go to a bowl. They are in my “Believe it When I See It” pod, and even then I may not believe it. Kansas State, though possibly dangerous, should be bottoming out from the dark Prince. Everybody’s getting all high on them, and I think they will suck.
Record: 5-0
The trap game:
@ULL, @Kansas
ULL doesnt scare me, they’re going to be jacked for this, but who cares. By then we’ve had a couple of tune ups and should have the offense rolling, and will dominate. Same goes for Kansas. They have two good years of football and everybody is all worried. The state of Kansas should fear every state below them.
Record: 2-0
The “Its God Damn Time” Pod
Texas, Texas Tech
One of these fuckers will know what losing to OSU at home feels like, and our boy’s outta be ready to whip some ass, especially the seniors. Fuck Texas, but thats only good enough for one win
Record: 1-1
The Home Upset Pod
OU, A&M, Nebraska
This one gets tougher to call, but for one I believe the Boone Bowl will be “rockin” for these games. One, I dont think either A&M or Nebraska will be as good as advertised, and two, in recent years both are choke artists(Nebraska, see BIg 12 CG and Iowa State, A&M, see texas and us last year) And we have A&M at a funky time, so I give OSU the advantage since we dont have to travel. As far as OU, who knows. I was 1,000,000,000% certain we were going to win by 50 last year, so my optimism is understandably dampened. However, I think by then Demarco Murray and half of the O-Line will be hurt, our offense will be rolling, and our defense will be enough to stop the late in the game. So, for my absolute home picks
Record: 3-0!!!
So yes, I have us going 11-1 and winning the south. We could easily lose all three home upset games, and lose to texas, texas tech, and baylor, but we haven’t played a game yet. I’ll revise this after the Troy game.
GO POKES!!
by AUKingOState on Aug 28, 2010 10:00 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Love the optimism AUKingOState.
The state of Kansas should fear every state below them.
I am a HUGE fan of this line
by samuelbryant on Aug 28, 2010 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I like the pods
But disagree with the Trap record. I’ve got 3-0 simply because OSU has much better talent than any of those teams. By the time the K-State and Kansas games come along, the youth will have much needed experience and the offense will be gelling like a gay shoe insole commercial (BOOOO, horrible analogy).
8-4 is the correct record with a chance to be 9-3 with a win over Nebraska. I agree that games @Tech and @UT are automatic losses until proven otherwise.
No faith?
Screw texas, they have to lose sometimes. Same goes for tech. Guess I know how jesse jackson feels now that im in the minority.
by AUKingOState on Aug 30, 2010 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions
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