College Football Championship Predictions - Toxic Differential Style

USA TODAY Sports

Who will win the Conference Championship games this weekend? Toxic Differential has the answer.

Championship weekend is here! It's sad to say but there is only one regular season game left to be played for 28 lucky teams. Let's break down the conference championships and final Big 12 match-ups of the year!

For a refresher on Toxic Differential - See here.

See the Toxic Differential Pick and Comment columns for the predictions!
Team (Toxic Diff) at Team (Toxic Diff) Conference F/+ Prediction Toxic Diff Pick Comments
Louisville (42) at Cincinnati (24) AAC Louisville by 13.5 (34.1 - 20.7) Louisville This is a great match-up and Louisville's last conference game in the AAC before they move on to the ACC next fall.
Bowling Green (39) at Northern Illinois (30) MAC Bowling Green by 1.1 (32.7 - 31.6) Bowling Green Bowling Green will be out to spoil Northern Illinois hopes of playing in the Fiesta Bowl against the Big 12 champion. Both F/+ and Toxic Diff agree that this will be a very even matchup, with Bowling Green having the edge.
Central Florida (27) at SMU(-8) AAC Central Florida by 19.0 (42.8 - 23.8) Central Florida UCF should take care of SMU and claim their crown as the first AAC Champion.
Oklahoma (8) at Oklahoma State (47) Big 12 Oklahoma State by 13.5 (32.3 - 18.8) Oklahoma State This game is shaping up to have the worst weather of any Big 12 game in years. Toxic differential is extremely in Oklahoma States favor.
Marshall (28) at Rice (9) C-USA Marshall by 4.1 (38.4 - 34.3) Marshall Rice and Marshall are both 7-1 in conference play and are playing the Conference USA Championship game at Rice. Will home field advantage be enough to win the game? F/+ and Toxic Diff think not.
Memphis (-14) at Connecticut (-25) AAC Memphis by 6.0 (18.6 - 12.6) Memphis With a combined record of 5-17 Memphis at Connecticut will not be playing for any title, but the game itself is projected to be a tight one as the current Vegas spread is hovering around -1 Memphis.
Texas (14) at Baylor (47) Big 12 Baylor by 18.9 (45.7 - 26.8) Baylor If Oklahoma State looses to Oklahoma, the winner of this game is the Big 12 Champion. This will definitely be a game to watch even if the experts project a big win for the Bears (and Toxic Differential agrees).
Missouri (32) at Auburn (4) SEC Auburn by 3.0 (26.4 - 23.4) Missouri This is the only game that F/+ and Toxic Differential disagree on. With an F/+ predicting only 3 point win, this game is definitely up in the air.
South Florida (-8) at Rutgers (-17) AAC Rutgers by 2.3 (20.4 - 18.1) South Florida In yet another AAC game this week, South Florida takes on Rutgers in another tight game.
Stanford (9) at Arizona State (36) PAC-12 Arizona State by 0.1 (26.4 - 26.3) Arizona State F/+ predicts a win by .1 points. I'm not sure that is a ringing endorsement, but Toxic Diff agrees with the outcome!
UL-Lafayette (0) at South Alabama (12) Sun Belt South Alabama by 4.3 (37.2 - 32.9) South Alabama The only perfectly even "0" Toxic Differential team takes on South Alabama. ULL win guarantees the Ragin Cajuns the outright Conference Championship.
Duke (9) at Florida State (83) ACC Florida State by 24.1 (42.0 - 17.9) Florida State The ACC Championship Game is set to be a blowout in nearly every way possible. If Duke pulls this off, the SEC will be back into the National Championship game.
Ohio State (44) at Michigan State (32) Big 10 Ohio State by 4.8 (27.5 - 22.7) Ohio State Ohio barely won last week against Michigan, and they are projected to have another close game against 11-1 Michigan State. MSU will be no pushover, but the experts are still picking tOSU.
Utah State (24) at Fresno State (20) MWC Utah State by 4.4 (27.1 - 22.8) Utah State The Mountain West Conference Championship game will be decided between a very evenly matched Utah State and Fresno State.
Navy (19) at Army (-28) Navy by 11.6 (48.4 - 36.8) Navy Oh Army. Your -28 Toxic Diff does not look good and neither does your 3-8 record. Navy should take this one handedly.

Full Toxic Differential (Before Week 15)

Name Win PCT Gain 20+ Allow 20+ 20+ Margin TO Gain TO Lost TO Margin Toxic Diff
Florida State 100% 95 29 66 31 14 17 83
Oregon 83% 98 36 62 27 18 9 71
Baylor 91% 96 58 38 24 15 9 47
Oklahoma State 91% 68 37 31 29 13 16 47
Ohio State 100% 75 37 38 21 15 6 44
Washington 67% 85 48 37 22 15 7 44
Houston 67% 66 49 17 40 15 25 42
Louisville 91% 61 34 27 24 9 15 42
Wisconsin 75% 71 33 38 18 15 3 41
Bowling Green State 75% 61 31 30 19 10 9 39
Alabama 92% 68 38 30 18 12 6 36
Arizona State 83% 80 57 23 30 17 13 36
LSU 75% 83 47 36 16 18 -2 34
South Carolina 82% 69 47 22 26 15 11 33
Michigan State 92% 49 32 17 27 12 15 32
Missouri 92% 69 52 17 27 12 15 32
Northern Illinois 100% 72 56 16 27 13 14 30
Marshall 75% 74 49 25 25 22 3 28
UCLA 75% 62 43 19 24 15 9 28
UCF 91% 64 44 20 24 17 7 27
Kansas State 58% 57 32 25 24 24 0 25
Notre Dame 67% 60 32 28 13 16 -3 25
Cincinnati 82% 70 41 29 19 24 -5 24
Utah State 67% 66 50 16 23 15 8 24
Ball State 83% 68 57 11 30 18 12 23
Texas A&M 73% 87 63 24 20 21 -1 23
Buffalo 67% 64 44 20 22 20 2 22
Miami (FL) 75% 69 53 16 27 21 6 22
East Carolina 75% 58 42 16 21 16 5 21
Clemson 83% 67 51 16 26 22 4 20
Fresno State 83% 80 64 16 19 15 4 20
Vanderbilt 67% 47 34 13 27 20 7 20
Middle Tennessee State 67% 53 45 8 31 20 11 19
Navy 64% 48 38 10 17 8 9 19
Georgia 67% 76 52 24 14 20 -6 18
Oregon State 50% 79 64 15 27 25 2 17
Virginia Tech 67% 45 37 8 25 17 8 16
Mississippi 58% 62 48 14 20 20 0 14
Texas 73% 54 48 6 26 18 8 14
USC 69% 60 52 8 21 15 6 14
Iowa 67% 42 30 12 20 19 1 13
Colorado State 54% 75 65 10 19 17 2 12
Michigan 58% 56 49 7 25 20 5 12
South Alabama 46% 56 45 11 14 13 1 12
Arizona 58% 54 47 7 20 16 4 11
Boise State 67% 60 53 7 26 22 4 11
Brigham Young 67% 51 56 -5 28 12 16 11
Georgia Tech 58% 57 44 13 19 22 -3 10
Mississippi State 50% 55 52 3 24 17 7 10
Duke 83% 51 45 6 23 20 3 9
North Carolina 50% 58 51 7 19 17 2 9
North Texas 67% 48 49 -1 32 22 10 9
Rice 75% 51 48 3 24 18 6 9
Stanford 83% 54 45 9 17 17 0 9
Oklahoma 82% 46 42 4 18 14 4 8
Western Kentucky 67% 68 50 18 21 31 -10 8
Boston College 58% 59 55 4 18 15 3 7
Florida Atlantic 50% 51 42 9 19 21 -2 7
Maryland 55% 69 56 13 21 27 -6 7
Indiana 42% 83 74 9 17 20 -3 6
San Jose State 50% 70 60 10 17 22 -5 5
Auburn 92% 65 62 3 17 16 1 4
Central Michigan 50% 59 51 8 22 27 -5 3
Northwestern 42% 48 48 0 23 20 3 3
San Diego State 58% 66 51 15 16 28 -12 3
Texas Tech 58% 68 53 15 18 31 -13 2
Wyoming 42% 67 61 6 20 24 -4 2
Louisiana Tech 33% 57 53 4 26 29 -3 1
Syracuse 50% 48 49 -1 23 21 2 1
Louisiana-Lafayette 73% 54 58 -4 20 16 4 0
Toledo 58% 59 64 -5 20 16 4 -1
UTSA 58% 53 48 5 14 21 -7 -2
Ohio 58% 50 54 -4 22 21 1 -3
TCU 33% 44 45 -1 28 30 -2 -3
Akron 42% 42 46 -4 19 21 -2 -6
Minnesota 67% 49 59 -10 18 15 3 -7
North Carolina State 25% 53 60 -7 21 21 0 -7
Arkansas State 58% 50 64 -14 19 13 6 -8
SMU 50% 50 51 -1 16 23 -7 -8
South Florida 18% 37 43 -6 24 26 -2 -8
Penn State 58% 48 56 -8 20 22 -2 -10
Pittsburgh 50% 46 55 -9 16 17 -1 -10
UNLV 55% 51 67 -16 19 13 6 -10
Utah 42% 56 57 -1 16 25 -9 -10
Wake Forest 36% 32 40 -8 21 23 -2 -10
West Virginia 33% 59 65 -6 28 32 -4 -10
Kentucky 17% 48 60 -12 15 15 0 -12
Louisiana-Monroe 50% 51 59 -8 19 23 -4 -12
Tulane 58% 35 59 -24 33 21 12 -12
Nebraska 67% 55 56 -1 16 28 -12 -13
Memphis 27% 38 46 -8 18 24 -6 -14
Troy 50% 72 80 -8 11 18 -7 -15
Tulsa 25% 49 55 -6 24 34 -10 -16
Arkansas 25% 47 55 -8 14 23 -9 -17
Florida 33% 37 52 -15 18 20 -2 -17
Rutgers 46% 55 62 -7 15 25 -10 -17
Temple 17% 59 70 -11 13 19 -6 -17
Texas State 50% 41 60 -19 19 17 2 -17
Hawaii 0% 64 72 -8 24 34 -10 -18
Kent State 33% 43 57 -14 13 17 -4 -18
Tennessee 42% 46 65 -19 25 24 1 -18
Washington State 50% 48 61 -13 27 32 -5 -18
Georgia State 0% 58 70 -12 16 23 -7 -19
UAB 17% 60 73 -13 14 20 -6 -19
Illinois 33% 64 74 -10 11 21 -10 -20
Iowa State 25% 45 64 -19 21 22 -1 -20
New Mexico 25% 64 80 -16 10 14 -4 -20
Kansas 25% 41 64 -23 24 23 1 -22
Nevada 33% 50 79 -29 18 11 7 -22
Western Michigan 8% 38 54 -16 19 26 -7 -23
Connecticut 18% 38 60 -22 22 25 -3 -25
Air Force 17% 40 62 -22 9 13 -4 -26
Army 27% 34 65 -31 17 14 3 -28
Purdue 8% 31 57 -26 20 22 -2 -28
Southern Mississippi 8% 46 55 -9 19 38 -19 -28
Miami (OH) 0% 25 52 -27 19 21 -2 -29
Idaho 8% 51 76 -25 19 27 -8 -33
Colorado 31% 43 74 -31 21 24 -3 -34
New Mexico State 17% 49 78 -29 20 26 -6 -35
Massachusetts 8% 35 65 -30 19 26 -7 -37
Virginia 17% 34 69 -35 21 26 -5 -40
California 8% 58 87 -29 13 28 -15 -44
UTEP 17% 41 81 -40 12 18 -6 -46
Florida International 8% 25 68 -43 13 20 -7 -50
Eastern Michigan 17% 38 80 -42 11 23 -12 -54
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