OKLAHOMA STATE MBB PREVIEW & GAMETHREAD: A season in need of a win

Mark D. Smith-US PRESSWIRE

Three consecutive losses have the depleted Cowboys on the ropes, and reinvigorated questions about Ford's worthiness as their head coach. Everyone involved needs a win, and a trip to Lubbock might just be what the doctor ordered. I did say "might."

Tubby Smith.

That's the one thing standing in the way of what should be an OSU win on the road.

Talent-wise, it's not even close, however the sideline acumen of Smith is so far beyond that of Ford that it could easily make up for the gap in athletes.

On the surface it looks like the Cowboys should cruise...but if you scan through the major stats and take into account the last three games, there are plenty of potholes that could cause OSU some difficulty, courtesy of Big12Sports.com.

CONFERENCE STATS & RANKING
OFFENSE OSU Tech
Scoring 79.4 (3) 68.7 (8)
FT% 71.4 (6) 74.5 (2)
Avg FT M-A 21-29 17-22
FG% 44.0 (5) 44.7 (4)
Avg FG M-A 26-59 23-52
3PT FG% 34.1 (6) 34.5 (5)
Avg M-A 7-20 5-16
DEFENSE
Scoring 76.3 (7) 70.1 (t2)
FG% 42.2 (4) 44.5 (7)
Avg FG M-A 25-60 23-53
3PT FG% 33.5 (4) 32.3 (1)
Avg M-A 7-21 6-18
Rebounding Margin -3.1 (8) +2.7 (4)
TO Margin +2.8 (3) -2.9 (9)

These numbers can be a little misleading, just like in football, where the pace of play is likely more responsible for the production on both sides of the ball than actual athleticism and execution.Tubby keeps it nice and slow, which minimizes the exposure for a team that is going to lose the "talent" battle most nights.

While the Cowboys have 3 players in the top 10 in scoring in the Big 12 (Smart, Brown, Nash), the Red Raiders have just 1 in the top 20 (Crockett).

KenPom predicts 75-71 with 65% confidence. That's not making me feel all warm and fuzzy. Here's the basic stuff from them on both teams, Big 12 games only:

Oklahoma State

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency 115.5 19 97.0 47 104.3
Adj. Tempo 70.3 48 67
Avg. Poss. Length 15.5 13 18.3 267 17.8
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 53.7 30 44.9 34 49.5
Turnover %: 14.7 11 20.0 77 18.5
Off. Reb. %: 29.5 236 31.2 164 31.6
FTA/FGA: 50.4 25 39.1 141 40.8
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 36.6 80 31.6 59 34.4
2P%: 53.1 31 43.6 36 48.5
FT%: 71.5 121 68.5 122 69.7
Block%: 9.0 121 13.9 33 9.8
Steal%: 8.8 146 10.8 45 9.1
Style Components
3PA/FGA: 32.9 164 33.4 203 32.8
A/FGM: 50.4 203 44.3 20 51.8
Defensive Fingerprint: Mostly Man
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers: 25.2 203 27.1 155 26.6
2-Pointers: 49.7 216 49.9 206 51.1
Free Throws: 25.1 50 23.0 145 22.3
Strength of Schedule
Components: 106.1 78 102.1 53 104.3
Overall: .6091 61 0.5
Non-conference: .4475 248 0.5
Personnel
Bench Minutes: 27.6% 247 30.80%

Texas Tech

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Efficiency 108.9 3 110.9 8 104.3
Tempo 62.2 10 67
Avg. Poss. Length 20.9 10 17.8 8 17.8
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 49.9 4 49.9 6 49.5
Turnover %: 18.8 8 14.3 10 18.5
Off. Reb. %: 36.6 4 32.4 9 31.6
FTA/FGA: 42.6 5 43.5 6 40.8
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 34.5 5 32.3 1 34.4
2P%: 49.1 4 50.6 8 48.5
FT%: 74.5 2 76.7 10 69.7
Block%: 9.5 1 10.4 5 9.8
Steal%: 9.2 8 7.2 9 9.1
Style Components
3PA/FGA: 30.2 8 33.3 5 32.8
A/FGM: 51.9 6 48.3 3 51.8
Defensive Fingerprint: Inconclusive
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers: 23.8 9 24.2 8 26.6
2-Pointers: 52.1 4 50.7 4 51.1
Free Throws: 24.1 6 25.0 4 22.3
Strength of Schedule
Components: 106.1 77 103.3 106 104.3
Overall: .5771 84 0.5
Non-conference: .4537 238 0.5
Personnel
Bench Minutes: 32.9% 118 30.80%

Here are the stats for the major contributors, courtesy of ESPN:

Player MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
Oklahoma State
Marcus Smart 31.4 17.3 5.7 4.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 41.9% 72.6% 28.2%
Markel Brown 33.9 17 5.5 2.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 48.6% 77.1% 37.6%
Le'Bryan Nash 28.5 14.6 6.1 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.9 53.7% 71.7% 0.0%
Phil Forte, III 23.9 12.2 1.6 1.1 0.8 0 0.6 45.8% 91.8% 47.3%
Brian Williams 25.9 7.8 4 1 1.1 0.5 1 52.5% 71.9% 27.3%
Kamari Murphy 24 6 5.6 0.8 0.6 1.5 1 57.1% 51.2% 0.0%
Leyton Hammonds 6.4 1 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 21.4% 50.0% 14.3%
Texas Tech MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
Jaye Crockett 29.2 14.4 6.2 1.4 1 0.5 1.7 55.3% 81.0% 33.3%
Jordan Tolbert 26 11.1 6 1 0.6 0.9 1.8 57.8% 75.0% 31.8%
Robert Turner 28.5 9.7 2.6 2.7 1.2 0.3 1.5 39.2% 69.9% 29.3%
Dusty Hannahs 22.6 9.2 1.4 1.3 0.5 0 1 43.1% 91.7% 40.2%
Toddrick Gotcher 26.7 7.3 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 38.0% 71.8% 33.3%
Dejan Kravic 21 7.2 4.7 0.9 0.3 1.3 1.1 48.9% 73.0% 50.0%
Aaron Ross 10.9 4 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 47.4% 81.5% 47.1%
Randy Onwuasor 12.1 3.3 1.6 1.3 0.7 0 1.3 41.0% 61.8% 18.2%
Jamal Williams, Jr. 11.4 2.5 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 25.9% 61.1% 19.4%
Kader Tapsoba 10.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 60.0% 75.0% 0.0%
Alex Foster 6.7 2.2 1.8 0 0 0.1 0.3 53.6% 62.5% 0.0%


Not sure how many of these guys are contributing, but looking at this list one might think depth could be an issue for OSU in this game. The positive here is that Tech doesn't play at a fast pace, so Ford's limited bench shouldn't be a huge factor unless fouls become a problem.

Win this game and the Cowboys stop the bleeding. Lose this game, and Holder might start a new fundraising campaign with a goal of $14 million by the end of February.

Not sure which I'm hoping for.

Game will be carried on ESPNU at 8:30pm Central. Here's the game preview from Viva The Matadors.

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GO POKES!!!

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