Cowboys Ride For Free: All Posts by Mark Travis

The Evolution Of The Knicks

2013-04-08T10:31:02Z

The Evolution Of The Knicks

My column on the evolution of Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Raymond Felton.

Chris Davis is blasting off

2013-04-06T17:16:13Z

Chris Davis is blasting off

My column on Chris Davis, his fast start and why I always thought he could do this.

NCAA Tournament Preview: When Oregon has the ball

2013-03-20T22:02:09Z

The majority of teams across the college basketball landscape that love to play fast do so because they have teams blessed with extremely talented and/or athletic players (Memphis, VCU, North Carolina, etc.) or because they play extremely small (Iona, Iowa State).

The Oregon Ducks play fast, but it seems like they do so only to extend the brand that Chip Kelly built with the football team. In all seriousness, the Ducks like a fast pace because their half-court offense isn't all that efficient, and their jitterbug point guard, freshman Dominic Artis, can really push the ball up the floor.

Oregon plays with the 48th fastest tempo in the country according to KenPom and yet only score .98 points per possession in transition per Synergy Sports Technology (207th out of the 273 teams with 300 transition possessions this season). The combination of a fast pace and a below average transition offense combine to make Oregon a middling offensive team; they score 104.0 points per 100 possessions, 122nd in the country.

The Cowboys like to push the pace as well, as their 67.7 possessions per game average ranked 93rd in the country. The only teams that Oklahoma State lost to this season that ranked in the top 100 in pace were Iowa State (34th) and Kansas (91st), and they also beat both of those teams. The Pokes were 6-2 overall against teams with a top 100 tempo, with the wins coming against North Carolina State, Central Arkansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas. The Ducks were 10-1 against top 100 tempo teams this season, with their best wins in that group being over UNLV and UCLA (twice).

We should expect a high octane game between these two teams, and I am inclined to favor Oklahoma State in a fast paced game as I think they are a bit more athletic on the perimeter and better offensively. One of the reasons that the Ducks don't score all that well in transition is because they are a high turnover team, and rushing up-and-down the floor can exacerbate that fact. The Ducks turn the ball over on 21.3% of their possessions, the seventh worst mark for any team in the tournament and one of the worst marks in the entire country.

Interestingly enough, the highest rated portion of the Cowboys' defense is their ability to get back in transition, at least according to Synergy Sports Technology. Of D-1 teams that have faced at least 300 transition possessions this season, the Cowboys rank 13th, giving up just .893 points per transition possession. When you narrow it down to power conference teams, the Pokes are fourth behind UCLA, Alabama and Indiana.

Moving on to the players that comprise the Ducks' up tempo attack: Oregon has a group of players that contribute in different ways, with no true number one option. The Ducks have a group of players that use between 16-24% of the team's possessions when they are on the floor, which makes them a very balanced team. For reference: Marcus Smart uses 28.1% of OSU's possessions when he is on the floor, 110th most in the nation, and the Cowboys only have three players with usage rates over 20% (Oregon has five).

E.J. Singler is the closest thing the Ducks have to a go-to guy, and he is definitely the player their ball handlers are looking to find on drive-and-kicks. E.J.'s career at Oregon has been very similar to the one his brother Kyle had at Duke. Neither Singler ever broke the elite 40% mark from three-point range (although they both had seasons at exactly 39.9%), but they both command the attention as if their numbers were a bit better. Singler is not just a standstill shooter, either. He is very good at attacking closeouts and driving to the basket if you run out at him too aggressively.

The Ducks love to get Singler on the move, particularly by having him flare across the top of the key while a big and a wing act like they are setting up a post-up on the strong side. The Pokes will have to make sure they have eyes on Singler at all times to minimize his open looks. The catch is you can't closeout at 100 MPH on him because he is very capable of putting the ball on the floor and getting into the paint (he's got a great shot fake, too).

I think Markel Brown is the ideal matchup for Singler. I've seen Brown get hung up on screens before this season, but he's the most athletic player on the team and he is very good at closing out on shooters when he is focused. It will take quite a bit out of him to chase around a shooter all game, but I think he can keep Singler in check and prevent him from getting off clean shots from deep.

Take a look at Brown chasing around Rodney McGruder earlier this season. You can see him get stuck in the mud on the screen, but look at all the ground that he covers despite getting caught up to make a decent contest. Brown will need to do a better job not conceding that space. If he does, his athleticism will really bottle up Singler.

Freshman point guard Dominic Artis is the engine that makes this team go. Unfortunately for the Ducks (and fortunately for the Cowboys), Artis has not yet fully recovered from a foot injury that cost him nine games (four of Oregon's eight losses came when he was out) and he may not be at 100% coming into this game (he only played 13 minutes against UCLA in the Pac-12 title game).

Artis is a very quick point guard with a knack for getting into the paint and making plays for his teammates. He's a better passer out of the pick-and-roll game than he is a scorer (he only shoots 36% out of the pick-and-roll this season), so any time you see him turn the corner on the pick-and-roll, expect him to be looking to draw the help defense and hit one of Oregon's athletic and smart big men cutting towards the rim or Singler and Damyean Dotson for a three.

Even with a healthy Artis, I really think that the Cowboys will be able to neutralize him because Marcus Smart is an incredible defensive player - not to mention about four inches taller and 40 pounds bigger - but it will take a team effort. Because Artis is not much of a shooter, Smart will be able to go under picks and get in good defensive position to do his best job of stopping Artis from forcing help.

That help defense is going to be the key to this game for the Pokes. The most important thing that the Cowboys will need to do is stay disciplined with their help defense principles. They have gotten killed this season because they tend to breakdown when faced with dribble penetration and Artis has done this all season long. Oregon's bigs - center Tony Woods and power forward Arsalan Kazemi - can post-up, but their best contributions on offense are lurking around the foul line and the baseline, or freely rolling to the rim once their defender leaves to help or doesn't play the pick-and-roll properly.

Take a look at Artis breaking down the defense and creating some easy looks for his teammates here.

I said yesterday that I advocate the Cowboys playing small in this game, so there will be a ton of pressure on Michael Cobbins, who has been great defending the pick-and-roll this season, and Le'Bryan Nash to cover for each other if help is necessary. Oklahoma State can't allow the Ducks to get into the paint consistently and they can't allow Artis to break them down to get Woods and Kazemi easy looks at the rim.

One way that the Pokes can slow Artis down and prevent him from making a huge impact on the game with his passing is by executing their pick-and-roll schemes correctly. Oklahoma State employs two primary pick-and-roll coverages: they like to hard hedge-and-recover with their bigs on side pick-and-rolls and they like to play a soft coverage on high screen-and-rolls where their big man will sag at the foul line to corral penetration and allow for the guard to fight back over the screen.

Here is Oklahoma State executing their hedge-and-recover scheme against a Pierre Jackson side pick-and-roll in the Big 12 tournament. Notice how Nash is in a position to force Jackson away from the basket. Jackson concedes the pick-and-roll possession and passes to the wing and Nash does a good job getting back to his man before the Bears could post him up.

Here is the soft coverage for high pick-and-rolls in action. Usually the big will come a little bit higher than Cobbins is here, but the idea is to make sure that the point guard can't turn the corner and get to the rim.

Nash, Cobbins and even Philip Jurick (though he as a tendency to take himself out of plays by jumping to the wrong direction on some high screen-and-rolls) have done a good job executing the scheme this season. The Cowboys generally do a good job of preventing opposing point guards from turning the corner on high pick-and-rolls and they also do a solid job rotating off of those hedges. The big challenge will be keeping Artis from blowing by the bigs at the foulline on high pick-and-rolls and trying to make him become a mid-range jumpshooter.

The Ducks are not a good offensive team, but that doesn't mean that the Cowboys can lack any effort or attention to detail on the defensive end and get away with it. The Ducks are going to miss some open shots and turn the ball over, but the Pokes have to work to prevent Oregon from feasting on interior buckets created by dribble penetration. The Cowboys are one of the best defensive teams in the country and if they stay focused for 40 minutes on this end of the floor, I believe they'll be able to win this game even if their offense can't create a ton of great shots against the Ducks' great defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma State, 66-60.

NCAA Tournament Preview: When Oklahoma State has the ball

2013-03-19T17:30:29Z

As you've heard at least 1,000 times by now, the Oklahoma State Cowboys got a tough draw because of some bracketing minutia, and will have to play a grossly underseeded Oregon team in their first game in the NCAA tournament. I think we've all complained about that enough by now, and it's time to start focusing on actually playing Oregon and the specific challenges they will pose for the Pokes.

Here's the bare bones summary of what Oregon brings to the table: On defense, the Ducks only allow 88.6 points per 100 possessions, the 16th best defensive efficiency in the country, they clean up on the defensive glass, they force a lot of turnovers. On offense Oregon is significantly worse. They shoot just 32.% from three (nearly as bad OK State's 31.6% mark), they turn the ball over on 21.3% of their possessions and they rely heavily on free throws to get points. Like the Pokes, Oregon gets a larger percentage of their points from the stripe than from beyond the arc (22% to 21%).

Today I'll be focusing on the Ducks' defense and how the Cowboys matchup with them. My preview on the challenges of Oregon's offense will come in a separate post.

The Ducks only allow .804 points per possession according to Synergy Sports Technology, one of the best marks in the country. They do this primarily by disrupting their opponents' rhythm and getting into them on every possession.

The Ducks close out hard on every spot-up opportunity and force their opponents to put the ball on the floor rather than allowing a clean look at the basket. With a great shot blocker (6'11" senior Tony Woods) on the backline, the Ducks can funnel their men from the perimeter into the middle of the floor and force them deal with Woods, or stick on their hip, which their athletic wings can often do. When something as simple as catch-and-shoot chances become a chore, offenses can really start to bog down.

Closing out spot-up shooters also plays into Oregon's pick-and-roll defense. They play a very aggressive style with their bigs hedging hard more often than not on high ball screens. Being so aggressive far away from the basket can put pressure on your off-ball defenders to be precise and on-time with their rotations, and the Ducks do a really good job of not beating themselves with this strategy. The Ducks have an aggressive scheme against the pick-and-roll and all five players on the floor must be on a string for it work, which is usually the case.

Oregon only allows opposing pick-and-roll ball handlers to shoot 37% of the time from the field, but what's even more impressive is that a quarter of those pick-and-rolls don't even end in a shot because the Ducks are so good at forcing turnovers up high. Whether it's the big man coming up and getting his hand on the ball or the guard anticipating the pass to the roll man after fighting through the screen, the Ducks do a great job defending their opponents' next move, and creating those turnovers gives their offense a much needed boost in possessions.

Take a look at a few possessions here where the Ducks force their opponents into turnovers by disrupting their flow with their aggressive big men.

Senior power forward Arsalan Kazemi is the key in Oregon's pick-and-roll scheme. The 6'7" big man has a ton of big game experience, and I'm not talking about him playing in the Pac-12 Title game, either. We're talking playing in the 2010 FIBA World Championships for Iran big game experience, and guarding guys like Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Goran Dragic and Rudy Gay.

I love the way Kazemi plays the game. He's a small forward for his national team but plays bigger for Oregon. He's a very athletic player that can go out and hedge hard, stay with guards on switches and clean up the defensive boards (he has the second best defensive rebound rate in the nation). Take a look here at how he gets out on Cincinnati's Sean Kilpatrick, who rarely turns the ball over.

Kazemi is so good at using his body to prevent you from getting any dribble penetration while reaching at the perfect times with his arms to create steals against guards that think he's just at typical big man that will soon retreat back to his man. I love Smart, but his turnover rate is a bit high, so he will need to be weary any of Kazemi any time he shoots out at him.

Speaking of which: You don't have to go back very far to see how Marcus Smart and the Cowboys' offense fared against a team with similar defensive principles. The Kansas State Wildcats had their bigs shoot up towards the ball handler on high screens and it really took the Cowboys out of their game. Continuing to play the Philip Jurick/Michael Cobbins frontcourt duo allows teams to do this without much worry. When Smart gets trapped up high or forced way out of the play, Oklahoma State has failed to make the defense pay, in part because their bigs don't stretch the floor, but mostly because Marcus isn't all that dangerous as a shooter and the Cowboys do a very poor job of moving without the ball.

I think the ideal move for Coach Ford is to play a smaller, shooter oriented line-up (Forte/Brown/Nash) against Oregon's aggressive defense, allowing Nash to play his natural "hybrid" four spot. We've seen this line-up a ton before, but the Cowboys need it as soon as possible in this game so as not to get off to another slow and disheartening start that may discourage the team.

Forte has proven to have a great basketball IQ and tremendous chemistry with Smart - this is something Whetsell talked about on the podcast - so that you have a player on the floor that knows how to find an open spot for Smart when he's being forced away from the basket. Brown has all of the physical tools to do the same thing, but for whatever reason he hasn't been as effective at finding those spaces on the floor when Smart gets in trouble. I'm sure this is something the team discussed when they watched the film of the Kansas State loss from the Big 12 tournament, as that was a huge issue in that game.

The more I look at tape and study the numbers, I think that the Ducks are going to do everything in their power to make sure Marcus Smart doesn't wow the bevy of NBA scouts that will be tuned in to watch him play. In addition to being aggressive against Smart in the pick-and-roll, Oregon has also thrown a zone press at teams to stop their point guards from getting into quick offense and from touching the ball altogether. I think that is something that the Ducks will show Smart in this game in an attempt to get the ball out of his hands. And though Marcus is a lot bigger than Oregon's point guard options, I get the sense that Oregon head coach Dana Altman will put 6'5" senior guard Carlos Emory on Smart for stretches, or perhaps the majority of the game if he has the option of hiding his smaller point guards on Forte.

Smart is a good enough player that he will still be able to make plays for others, and his skill set will definitely beat Oregon's scheme on some possessions, but I don't see him having a huge game from a scoring perspective (though that has been a good thing in general for the Cowboys this season).

You know what that means: The Pokes will be relying on a big game from Nash in order to advance.

As scary as it sounds, I think there is a big chance for Nash to put up a decisive performance in this game. What it will come down to is whether or not Nash shows up to the arena focused and ready to go (a 30/70 proposition at this point), though I also contend that this is a big moment for Travis Ford.

Whetsell and I talked at length in the podcast about Ford not maximizing the talent of this group, and, well, here is Ford's chance to go to Nash tonight or tomorrow morning and tell him that they will only go as far as he takes them. This is just my theory, but I think Nash has probably lost a little bit of confidence this season with Smart (deservedly) grabbing the headlines and his draft stock taking a hit. I think it would be huge for Ford to look him in the eye and let him know how much the team needs him to perform in this game.

An enraged, motivated Nash is capable of doing big things, particularly in the post, which is where I think the Pokes have to attack the Ducks in order to get consistently good looks. The pick-and-roll attack is going to get stagnant at times and the Pokes aren't likely to get many clean looks at the rim from deep. The solution is putting Nash in the post, either with his back to the basket or in a face-up position from the mid-post, and imploring him to attack for 40 minutes.

Nash draws 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes according to KenPom, and he has a solid 50.1% free throw rate. Having him attack someone like Kazemi in the post could get him in foul trouble and take one o f the Ducks' best players out of the game. And if Kazemi is out, the space for some pick-and-roll action may be reborn because of how important Kazemi is to Oregon's defensive scheme.

It's tough to put the hopes of a team that we will likely never see again after this month on the shoulders of a kid who has done nothing but fail to meet expectations during his college career. But I see Nash as the Pokes' biggest advantage in this game, and it just comes down to whether or not he shows up ready to play.

We better start praying now.

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Is OSU Hitting A Wall?

2013-03-16T22:04:39Z

Last night's loss to Kansas State was a somewhat predictable one for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. They lost by six in Manhattan to the Wildcats and would have lost to them in Stillwater if it weren't for an interesting offensive foul call against Angel Rodriguez.

While it is disappointing that this team won't have a shot to be the Big 12 champs, what is really disconcerting about the Cowboys getting eliminated from the Big 12 tournament was the way that the offense performed against a tough Wildcat defense. What happened last night was the extension of a recurring theme of Oklahoma State's season: the spacing on offense is non-existent.

While starting the frontcourt trio of Le'Bryan Nash, Michael Cobbins and Philip Jurick makes for some tremendous defense, the effect it has on the team's offense may be just as detrimental as it is helpful on the other end, at least against better teams. Jurick provides no offensive value outside of offensive rebounding, Cobbins is a solid finisher but can't stretch the floor and Nash is Josh Smith-like in that he can shoot, but that's not what you want him to do a consistent basis. Even Marcus Smart is a below average outside shooter.

Markel Brown is the only starter that stretches the floor with above average three-point percentage (37.9%), and Phil Forte is the only other rotation player that hits above 30% of his long-range shots (34.4%).

This is the reason why it is not hard to believe that it took four minutes for Oklahoma State to score their first points of the game last night, and eight minutes for them to make their first shot in the half-court.

Kansas State extended Oklahoma State's offense away from the basket by hedging hard on all of their pick-and-roll action, which is how the Cowboys have created a large percentage of their points this season.

Look at the position that Smart is in here. He's being doubled to prevent any dribble penetration off the screen-and-roll action, and the weakside spacing is poor, with nobody in a position to make Kansas State pay for committing two defensive players to Smart.

More often than not, the Wildcats prevented Smart from turning the corner hard on pick-and-rolls, making it harder for him to attack the basket off the bounce. As a result, Smart shot just 6-of-17 from the field, only got to the line four times and finished with just three assists.

When the defense is preventing your best player from making plays, offense is harder to come by and possessions can get stagnant. As a result, impatient college kids can feel the need to press to put points on the board.

That is a 28% three-point shooter taking a contested three-point shot with 14 seconds left on the shot clock. The defense did shift a way from him a foot or two when Nash penetrated, but by the time he rose for the shot, the defense was back in sound position. Obviously, this is not the kind of shot you are looking for.

With two seconds left on the shot clock, a half-court shot from Phil Forte would be a great option, but this is with 29 seconds left on the shot clock. Forte must have been relieved just to get a good look at the rim, because he was incredibly eager to take a shot from six feet behind the three-point line. Can Forte make deep threes? Yes, but that is not a good look given the situation.

And on the rare occasions that Smart got into the paint and forced Kansas State to help on the drive, the floor wasn't spaced with options for Smart to find. Take a look here at how the floor is spread.

Kansas State has no qualms helping off of Nash in the corner, and the only good shooter on the floor for the Cowboys is Brown, and he's not in in a position to be a threat. If it were him in the weakside corner and Nash on the wing, Smart would be able to find him or the Wildcats wouldn't help off him, giving Smart a clearer lane to the rim. Kansas State has Smart boxed in with four defenders, and Oklahoma State's spacing is so bad that they can't make them pay.

Here again, as Smart drives, Kansas State collapses their defense happily to stop him, unafraid of what Brian Williams or Christien Sager will do if he passes it to them.

Last night the Cowboys looked like a middling team with no direction on the offensive end of the floor. When teams are thwarting Smart in pick-and-rolls, Oklahoma State has to be ready and willing to shift their offensive identity by going to Nash in the mid-post and on the block. Instead, Nash got just two post-ups last night, even after destroying Baylor on the block in the second half of their second round matchup.

When you have a team that can't shoot, getting to the rim becomes even harder because defenses will pack the paint and force you to play on the perimeter. Nash is Oklahoma State's best option when the outside shots aren't falling, particularly when Smart is getting trapped up top on pick-and-rolls.

***

Even during one of the best seasons in program history with the two most talented players Travis Ford has ever recruited on the roster, Oklahoma State's offense has been far from great this year. While it has certainly been far better than it was over the past couple of seasons, there have been times this season when they have struggled mightily to score on a consistent basis.

Ranking 58th in the country in offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) isn't so bad, but the glaring issue with the offense is that lack of three-point shooting.

This is evident in the team's effective field goal percentage - eFG% is FG% with made three-pointers being worth 50% more. Oklahoma State has a 48.9% effective field goal percentage this season, which is just slightly above the D-1 average and ranks 148th in the nation. The Cowboys are a below average three-point shooting team, as they make just 31.6% of their attempts from deep, ranking them 269th in the country and well below the D-1 average.

According to Synergy Sports Technology, exactly 200 D-1 teams have attempted at least 450 catch-and-shoot jumpers this season; Oklahoma State ranks 166th in that group when it comes to points per possession (.936) and 114th in the group in field goal percentage (34.9%).

The Pokes have been able to survive their lack of three-point shooting because they get fouled a lot. Nearly a quarter (23.8%) of Oklahoma State's points this season have come at the free throw line, the 25th largest portion in the country. The Cowboys are also one of the extremely rare teams that gets a larger percentage of their points from the charity stripe than from the three point line (23.8% to 23.1%).

The Cowboys have three of the top 15 free throw drawers in the Big 12 based on KenPom's free throw rate and fouls drawn metrics. Marcus Smart ranked third in the conference in free throw rate (59.0%), Le'Bryan Nash ranked seventh (49.4%) and Markel Brown ranked 12th (39.8%). Smart ranked third again in the fouls drawn per 40 minutes category (6 FD/40), Nash ranked 10th (5.2 FD/40) and Brown ranked 16th (4.4 FD/40).

The ability of that trio to consistently attack the basket and to draw fouls gives the Pokes a much needed boost in offensive efficiency, and usually makes up for the team's lack of perimeter scoring. Once the Cowboys get to the line, they are one of the best teams in the country at converting their freebies with a 75% conversion rate (22nd in the country, 2nd in the Big 12).

Oklahoma State's record is indicative of their heavy reliance on free throws and their lack of three-point shooting. In four of their eight losses this season, the Cowboys attempted a below average amount of free throws (they average 23 free throw attempts per game). In the four other games they lost, they shot a combined 18-of-74 from three (24%).

***

With the NCAA Tournament just days away from tipping off, the Pokes are one of the more difficult teams to project. Their defensive pedigree places them amongst the nation's best, and in matchups against offensive teams, the grind-it-out squads tend to have an advantage.

But you have to wonder: If they matchup with another defensive minded squad that doesn't put them at the line a ton, will their offense be able to out execute a Wisconsin or a Virginia? And what if the Cowboys draw a sharpshooting team like Belmont (their projected opponent as of now) or La Salle or Davidson in the first round? Will they be able to keep up with the three-point barrage that often accompanies the Cinderella teams in March?

I have faith in the Pokes' defense to win them a game or two in the tournament, but even for a team with Smart and Nash, I am not so sure in their offensive execution against equally tough defensive teams.

Coach Ford could spend the next couple of days attempting to correct his team's spacing by way of X's and O's, but he can't make his players better shooters. So if the Pokes are going to make a lengthy run in the NCAA Tournament, they'll do so if Oklahoma State is one of the teams that gets sprinkled with the pixie dust necessary to cause a little Madness in March.

D'Antoni: Pau's impact will be in the playoffs by the time he returns [UPDATED]

2013-02-25T13:56:13Z

**[UPDATE: An earlier version of this report inaccurately stated that Pau Gasol will miss the remainder of the regular season. Mike D'Antoni did not provide an updated timetable on Pau Gasol's health. Updated at 11:30 a.m. EST]**

Pau Gasol continues to recover from the plantar fascia tear he suffered a few weeks ago, and Mike D'Antoni believes by the time Gasol returns whether the Los Angeles Lakers will, or won't, make the playoffs will already be decided. His impact will be in the playoffs by the time he returns, as the season will already be down to the last few games, via Mark Medina of Daily News:

"By the time he gets back, we'll be in or out," D'Antoni said. "His impact will be in the playoffs if we get there."

D'Antoni has adjusted to Pau's absence by shortening his rotation to eight guys. Over the past week, the starters have been playing at least 30 minutes a game while Steve Blake, Antawn Jamison and Jodie Meeks have each been getting around 20 minutes a night.

D'Antoni has always been a short rotation kind of guy and he seems to be comfortable with the Meeks, Blake and Jamison trio as his key rotation players. And with the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, you should get used to this eight man unit, because they'll be the ones responsible if the Lakers are able to sneak into the post-season.

That said, if the Lakers end up caving and sign a big, everybody is down with bringing back D.J. Mbenga, right? Here's the thing about D.J.: He's got championship experience and he could probably turn Sacre's bench karate chops into lethal weapons with his judo background and all.

Markel Brown: OSU's Unheralded Star

2013-02-24T12:37:02Z

A year from today, Marcus Smart will likely be lounging around at his condo in downtown Orlando, winding down just days after winning the MVP award in the BBVA Rising Stars Challenge. Once his freshman season at Oklahoma State is over, he'll likely put his name into the NBA Draft pool and become one of the handful of elite prospects that teams in the lottery will be drooling over during pre-draft workouts.

Had he left after his freshman season, LeBryan Nash may have been a lottery pick, too, but his disappointing sophomore campaign has lowered his standing amongst NBA scouts. Even though one more year at Oklahoma State sans Smart may be better for his draft stock, Nash will likely be going pro as well, leaving the Pokes without the two best recruits of the Travis Ford era.

When those two end up declaring pro at the end of the season, folks will be looking for the next face of the program. Depending on what school he chooses, stud prospect Emmanuel Mudiay (currently ESPN's 3rd ranked recruit in the 2014 class) could give the Oklahoma State program a spark similar to the one Smart is delivering right now, and OSU's top recruit in the 2013 class, diminutive point guard Stevie Clark, seems like the kind of player that sticks around and grows into a fun-to-watch lead guard.

But at least for next season, I don't think there is much to debate about who the face of the program is. Because that player is clearly Markel Brown.

Brown is an extremely efficient two guard that combines all of the elements you can ask for in a college player into one extremely fun package. He shoots the ball at a relatively good clip (45% from the field, 39% from three), he understands floor spacing and where on the court he can go to punish a defense, he's a willing passer that sees the floor well and he competes defensively. He is also a player whose dunks are so electrifying that a ref once threw him out a game because he was sucking all of the gravity out of the building.

Brown has emerged as the Cowboys' most consistent and potent offensive player this season. Is Smart a better all-around player? Of course. Is Nash a more talented player? I believe so. But Oklahoma State's offense relies more heavily on Brown than either of them, as he's the most effective catch-and-shoot player and someone that can handle on-ball duties in a pinch. Based on KemPom's numbers, Brown is responsible for 25.5% of OSU's shots when he is on the floor, which ranks as the ninth highest shot percentage in the conference.

With a primary ball-handler in Smart and a primary interior presence in Nash, Brown works as a perfect compliment, a player who thrives in the gaps in the defense created by those other two.

His two biggest offensive contributions come as a cutter and a shooter (either as a spot-up shooter or coming off screens). Brown has a great sense for cutting on the fly when his teammates attack the rim and the Pokes also run a great deal of set plays from the sideline and in the halfcourt that allow Brown to take advantage of defenders that overplay his catches on the wing. There is one play in particular in which Smart receives a double high screen at the top of the key with Brown waiting in the weakside corner. As Smart uses the picks and dribbles towards Brown, defenders almost always try to deny the pass to Brown, and with the two bigs pulled away from the rim with the high screens, Brown is given a free lane to the hoop for an alley-oop on a backdoor cut.

Coming off screens, Brown loves to go towards his strong-hand. According to Synergy Sports Technology, of players with at least 45 possessions coming off screens to their right, Brown ranks fifth in the country, producing 1.188 points per possession. The reason he isn't first is because the guys ahead of him, like Rotnei Clarke, are primarily three-point shooters when coming off screens, which sets them up to be more valuable on a per possession basis. But as far as the player most adept at putting the ball in the basket when coming off screens with his strong hand? That would be Brown, who is tied for first in the NCAA with his 54.5% field goal percentage in such situations.

Apologies if that data jumbled your brain, but it paints a descriptive picture of the way that Brown is used in Oklahoma State's offense. He's someone that the Cowboys can rely on to get them baskets when Smart's shot is off and Nash isn't getting touches in optimal spots on the floor. He represents the conventionalism of the Cowboys' offense while Nash and Smart represent their outliers that often make plays out of nothing.

Brown is not a superstar. He's not a guy you can give the ball to with 20 seconds left in a tie game and expect to end up at the bottom of the pile after the buzzer (related: he's 3-of-16 on isolations this season). But he is someone that you can trust making big shots in big moments and exactly the kind of glue guy that you need to make a team reach its peak.

We can only hope that this Cowboy team does reach it's peak, as we're almost certainly never going to see this team together again after this season.

The good news for us is that Brown is likely to stay in school and finish out his fourth and final year of eligibility at Oklahoma State. But how can we expect Brown to handle the transition from perfect third banana for a pair of high usage players to a high usage player himself?

We've already seen Brown turn into the team's leading scorer this year, and we can expect him to carry an even heavier load next season. It will be interesting to see how Travis Ford chooses to distribute to Brown those extra 5-10 possessions left behind by Nash and Smart. Right now, Brown's offense breaks down like this (via Synergy): 22% transition, 18.5% spot-up, 16.8% pick-and-roll ball handler, 15.3% off screen, 7.7% cuts and about 10% hand off and isolation plays and some miscellaneous stuff.

I think it's good for Brown that Ford has recruited a point guard like Stevie Clark that should have a heavy ball handling role as soon as he steps on campus. While I like Brown as a secondary pick-and-roll guy, he's not necessarily someone that you want to be your primary distributor. He is shooting 40.5% on pull-up jumpers off pick-and-rolls this season, though, so a slightly larger dose of pick-and-roll action certainly seems logical, but I still want him to be an off-ball threat the majority of the time he is on the floor. That being said, given the rate that Brown has improved at during his college career, I wouldn't be surprised if he came back next season much more comfortable shooting off the bounce, which would warrant a much larger increase in his pick-and-roll possessions.

Obviously, a few more curl and flare screens will be in order for Brown, but something I have noticed about him in a limited sample size this season that has me excited is his work on hand offs. I feel like Ford should spend some time this off-season looking at how well Brown did when he got space created by a dribble hand off. The Cowboys could run hand off sets at the elbows to get Brown to turn the corner towards the rim and further up top to get him some space for jumpers. With his ability shoot the ball and get to the rim and finish, hand off plays present innumerable possibilities to get Brown good looks in rhythm.

He may not jump off the page at you, but I can see Brown turning in a Brandon Paul-like season for the Pokes next year. Paul is similar to Brown in a number of ways, from their relative height to their consistent improvement over the course of their collegiate careers. Paul is someone whose pick-and-roll possessions doubled as he entered his senior year and he is currently the leading scorer for a surging Illinois team. While Smart and Nash are the Cowboys' stars, Markel Brown has emerged as a force on one of the best teams in the nation. He's also someone considered a second round draft pick, and I think Brown could have a similar evaluation from NBA scouts at the completion of his senior season.

I have a strong belief that Brown will return to Oklahoma State next year and lead the Pokes to another NCAA tournament appearance. While he has certainly been blossoming this season, it's possible that he's yet to reach full bloom, and I think he will be more than able to lead this team - his team - next season.

Tiago Splitter continues positive growth

2013-02-06T16:34:17Z

Tiago Splitter continues positive growth

My piece on Tiago Splitter continuing to get better in his third year with the Spurs, with an in-depth look at his work on the pick-and-roll on both ends of the floor.