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Oklahoma State Basketball Post-Season Options and Chances, revisited

Last week I posted an article that laid out the 4 most likely scenarios for the Oklahoma State Basketballers post-season (NCAA Tourney, NIT, something called the CBI, and staying home), along with the percent chance of each happening.  A week has transpired now, and more importantly some key losses by contenders, and back-to-back Cowboy wins have improved our outlook, and I figured the post-season options and chances needed to be revisited.

As a reminder, last Friday my expertly computed and single-checked math resulted in percent chances of each of the following occurring as this:

Post Season Event What Needs to Happen? Chances
NCAA Tournament win last 3 regular season games, win 2 games in Big 12 tourney 1.02%
National Invitational Tournament Win 2 more games, any games 75%
College Basketball Invitational Leave the Big 12, join the Horizon League 1.01%
Sitting at home doing nothing Laziness, sharp increase in airfare, not getting NIT invite

So let's go through the same process, now a week into the future (neato!), and figure out what those chances are now.

I will start this post-jump paragraph by stating that this Cowboy team has now done enough to secure an NIT invite, assuming the NIT selection committee sticks to their time tested selection strategy of "Eh, how about this team, would they play and attract some kind of a crowd?...also, we need more scotch".  Really though, Oklahoma State is a decent name in college basketball, and has secured a solid enough record to garner an invite.  So, for the sake of this post (think of the post), let's assume that an NIT invite is secured, and that the Pokes would accept it.

With our NIT assumption made, the only discussion left is if the Cowboys can garner an NCAA Tournament invite. In my biased opinion, the criteria remains the same as the original post and table above.  Need to beat OU which secures a tie for 7th in the conference, and an 8th seed in the Big 12 tourney due to tiebreakers. Need to win the 1st round matchup with Baylor.  Need to win the 2nd round matchup vs Texas (or possibly Kansas).  This gives the Pokes a nice marquee win on a neutral court, and puts OSU squarely into the middle of the pile of teams looking for that 6th bid from the Big 12 (CU, NU, Baylor), and pretty much guarantees a spot in the dance if the committee takes 7 teams.  Plenty of other "bubble watches" agree with this assessment.

OK, so that whole paragraph only served to say, "nothing has changed as far as criteria", what has changed though is the percent chance of this happening. To calculate this using pseudo-scientific percentages, we turn to Pomeroy. Obviously the only game KenPom is going to have assigned a "percent chance of winning" to is the Oklahoma game, and in that one he says the Pokes have a 55% chance of winning.  I will make some bold assumptions on the next 2 matchups though.  Assuming the 1st round game is against Baylor, I gotta think the Pokes earn a slight edge given the three game winning streak, and recent easy win over the Bears, so I will put that one at 53% chance of victory.  As for Texas or Kansas in round 2, KenPom gave the Pokes a 4% chance of winning either game on the road during the season, and a 20% chance of beating Texas in GIA, I will split the difference, up it a tick given the improved play of the Pokes, and give the Cowboys a 15% chance of winning this game.

Mathmatecize all those up and the Cowboys are sitting on a 4.4% chance of making the NCAA tournament.  New table!

Post Season Event What Needs to Happen?
NCAA Tournament Win at OU, win two in Big 12 tourney 4.40%
National Invitational Tournament Done, In, if they want it. 95.99%
College Basketball Invitational Leave the Big 12, join the Horizon League 0.01%
Sitting at home doing nothing Laziness, cost of flights going up 0%

I am leaving a small window open for a 3rd possibility.  Your move, CBI.


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