After spending the opening paragraph of yesterday's post discussing the questions being raised about the 2011 Holgorsen-less offense, I decided I had one more. Under Dana's one year reign, a hot topic became the perceived under-utilization of All-American RB Kendall Hunter and breakout potential stars Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith. Many Poke fans (and most of this site) felt that even though Kendall was an All-American, and the team finished with nice rushing stats, that in clutch times when it would have made sense to lean on the stout run game, Dana resorted to the air. So what I wanted to do here was take a look at what the OSU offense's Run-Pass ratio really was last season, and whether OC Monken (aka: Uncle Joey, thanks SW) should take a more conservative, run-heavy approach to this hybrid-spread this season, or follow the gamblin skullett's approach of passing when the game is on the line.
First off, I wanted to take a look at how much the 2010 offense really did favor the pass over the run. Oklahoma State's pure Run-Pass Ratio for 2010 was 45.8% (meaning they ran the ball 45.8% of the time, and passed 54.2%). That is the 107th lowest ratio out of the 120 FBS teams, right behind Houston, and in front of Arizona. So even with the nice rushing stats, they were throwing it at a much higher rate than the national average, and Tech was the only Big 12 team with a lower ratio. And of course, Bill C has a more advanced method of looking at it that takes into account how often the teams were in standard passing and running situations to give an adjusted run-pass ratio. In this metric, the 2010 offense's ratio is 43.9%, good for 105th in the nation. This backs up the complaint that the issue wasn't just that the offense didn't run enough, it was that they didn't run when the situation really called for it (ie: 3rd and 1, 4th quarter with a lead, etc).
The average run-pass ratio for all of college football in 2010 was 55%, and I don't see the 2011 Oklahoma State squad hitting that number, but I think most of us would like to see something in-between 45.8% and 55%. The unknown at this point is how much of a gambler Uncle Joey Monken will be, and to which end of that spectrum he will skew.
Segue to random table that contains useful info that I couldn't find a reason to post anywhere else:
|Quarter||# Pass plays||# Run plays||Run-Pass Ratio|
Personally, I would love to see a gameplan that gets close to that 50% mark, and basically inverts the by-quarter numbers above. I realize a lot of the in-game stuff is very situation dependent, but I would love to see a first quarter, and even first half, ratio up near where that 4th quarter ratio from last year was, thus establishing tempo, and tiring out the opposing defense early.
Where do you think Oklahoma State's Run-Pass Ratio should fall?