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Championship weekend is here! It's sad to say but there is only one regular season game left to be played for 28 lucky teams. Let's break down the conference championships and final Big 12 match-ups of the year!
For a refresher on Toxic Differential - See here.
See the Toxic Differential Pick and Comment columns for the predictions!
| Team (Toxic Diff) at Team (Toxic Diff) | Conference | F/+ Prediction | Toxic Diff Pick | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville (42) at Cincinnati (24) | AAC | Louisville by 13.5 (34.1 - 20.7) | Louisville | This is a great match-up and Louisville's last conference game in the AAC before they move on to the ACC next fall. |
| Bowling Green (39) at Northern Illinois (30) | MAC | Bowling Green by 1.1 (32.7 - 31.6) | Bowling Green | Bowling Green will be out to spoil Northern Illinois hopes of playing in the Fiesta Bowl against the Big 12 champion. Both F/+ and Toxic Diff agree that this will be a very even matchup, with Bowling Green having the edge. |
| Central Florida (27) at SMU(-8) | AAC | Central Florida by 19.0 (42.8 - 23.8) | Central Florida | UCF should take care of SMU and claim their crown as the first AAC Champion. |
| Oklahoma (8) at Oklahoma State (47) | Big 12 | Oklahoma State by 13.5 (32.3 - 18.8) | Oklahoma State | This game is shaping up to have the worst weather of any Big 12 game in years. Toxic differential is extremely in Oklahoma States favor. |
| Marshall (28) at Rice (9) | C-USA | Marshall by 4.1 (38.4 - 34.3) | Marshall | Rice and Marshall are both 7-1 in conference play and are playing the Conference USA Championship game at Rice. Will home field advantage be enough to win the game? F/+ and Toxic Diff think not. |
| Memphis (-14) at Connecticut (-25) | AAC | Memphis by 6.0 (18.6 - 12.6) | Memphis | With a combined record of 5-17 Memphis at Connecticut will not be playing for any title, but the game itself is projected to be a tight one as the current Vegas spread is hovering around -1 Memphis. |
| Texas (14) at Baylor (47) | Big 12 | Baylor by 18.9 (45.7 - 26.8) | Baylor | If Oklahoma State looses to Oklahoma, the winner of this game is the Big 12 Champion. This will definitely be a game to watch even if the experts project a big win for the Bears (and Toxic Differential agrees). |
| Missouri (32) at Auburn (4) | SEC | Auburn by 3.0 (26.4 - 23.4) | Missouri | This is the only game that F/+ and Toxic Differential disagree on. With an F/+ predicting only 3 point win, this game is definitely up in the air. |
| South Florida (-8) at Rutgers (-17) | AAC | Rutgers by 2.3 (20.4 - 18.1) | South Florida | In yet another AAC game this week, South Florida takes on Rutgers in another tight game. |
| Stanford (9) at Arizona State (36) | PAC-12 | Arizona State by 0.1 (26.4 - 26.3) | Arizona State | F/+ predicts a win by .1 points. I'm not sure that is a ringing endorsement, but Toxic Diff agrees with the outcome! |
| UL-Lafayette (0) at South Alabama (12) | Sun Belt | South Alabama by 4.3 (37.2 - 32.9) | South Alabama | The only perfectly even "0" Toxic Differential team takes on South Alabama. ULL win guarantees the Ragin Cajuns the outright Conference Championship. |
| Duke (9) at Florida State (83) | ACC | Florida State by 24.1 (42.0 - 17.9) | Florida State | The ACC Championship Game is set to be a blowout in nearly every way possible. If Duke pulls this off, the SEC will be back into the National Championship game. |
| Ohio State (44) at Michigan State (32) | Big 10 | Ohio State by 4.8 (27.5 - 22.7) | Ohio State | Ohio barely won last week against Michigan, and they are projected to have another close game against 11-1 Michigan State. MSU will be no pushover, but the experts are still picking tOSU. |
| Utah State (24) at Fresno State (20) | MWC | Utah State by 4.4 (27.1 - 22.8) | Utah State | The Mountain West Conference Championship game will be decided between a very evenly matched Utah State and Fresno State. |
| Navy (19) at Army (-28) | Navy by 11.6 (48.4 - 36.8) | Navy | Oh Army. Your -28 Toxic Diff does not look good and neither does your 3-8 record. Navy should take this one handedly. |
Full Toxic Differential (Before Week 15)
| Name | Win PCT | Gain 20+ | Allow 20+ | 20+ Margin | TO Gain | TO Lost | TO Margin | Toxic Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 100% | 95 | 29 | 66 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 83 |
| Oregon | 83% | 98 | 36 | 62 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 71 |
| Baylor | 91% | 96 | 58 | 38 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 47 |
| Oklahoma State | 91% | 68 | 37 | 31 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 47 |
| Ohio State | 100% | 75 | 37 | 38 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 44 |
| Washington | 67% | 85 | 48 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 44 |
| Houston | 67% | 66 | 49 | 17 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 42 |
| Louisville | 91% | 61 | 34 | 27 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 42 |
| Wisconsin | 75% | 71 | 33 | 38 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 41 |
| Bowling Green State | 75% | 61 | 31 | 30 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 39 |
| Alabama | 92% | 68 | 38 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 36 |
| Arizona State | 83% | 80 | 57 | 23 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 36 |
| LSU | 75% | 83 | 47 | 36 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 34 |
| South Carolina | 82% | 69 | 47 | 22 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| Michigan State | 92% | 49 | 32 | 17 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 32 |
| Missouri | 92% | 69 | 52 | 17 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 32 |
| Northern Illinois | 100% | 72 | 56 | 16 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 30 |
| Marshall | 75% | 74 | 49 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 28 |
| UCLA | 75% | 62 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 28 |
| UCF | 91% | 64 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 27 |
| Kansas State | 58% | 57 | 32 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 25 |
| Notre Dame | 67% | 60 | 32 | 28 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 25 |
| Cincinnati | 82% | 70 | 41 | 29 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 24 |
| Utah State | 67% | 66 | 50 | 16 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 24 |
| Ball State | 83% | 68 | 57 | 11 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 23 |
| Texas A&M | 73% | 87 | 63 | 24 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 23 |
| Buffalo | 67% | 64 | 44 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 22 |
| Miami (FL) | 75% | 69 | 53 | 16 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 22 |
| East Carolina | 75% | 58 | 42 | 16 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 21 |
| Clemson | 83% | 67 | 51 | 16 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 20 |
| Fresno State | 83% | 80 | 64 | 16 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 20 |
| Vanderbilt | 67% | 47 | 34 | 13 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 20 |
| Middle Tennessee State | 67% | 53 | 45 | 8 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 19 |
| Navy | 64% | 48 | 38 | 10 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 19 |
| Georgia | 67% | 76 | 52 | 24 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 18 |
| Oregon State | 50% | 79 | 64 | 15 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 17 |
| Virginia Tech | 67% | 45 | 37 | 8 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 16 |
| Mississippi | 58% | 62 | 48 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 14 |
| Texas | 73% | 54 | 48 | 6 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 14 |
| USC | 69% | 60 | 52 | 8 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 14 |
| Iowa | 67% | 42 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 13 |
| Colorado State | 54% | 75 | 65 | 10 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 12 |
| Michigan | 58% | 56 | 49 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 12 |
| South Alabama | 46% | 56 | 45 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 12 |
| Arizona | 58% | 54 | 47 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 11 |
| Boise State | 67% | 60 | 53 | 7 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 11 |
| Brigham Young | 67% | 51 | 56 | -5 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| Georgia Tech | 58% | 57 | 44 | 13 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 10 |
| Mississippi State | 50% | 55 | 52 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 10 |
| Duke | 83% | 51 | 45 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 9 |
| North Carolina | 50% | 58 | 51 | 7 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 9 |
| North Texas | 67% | 48 | 49 | -1 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 9 |
| Rice | 75% | 51 | 48 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 9 |
| Stanford | 83% | 54 | 45 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 9 |
| Oklahoma | 82% | 46 | 42 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 8 |
| Western Kentucky | 67% | 68 | 50 | 18 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 8 |
| Boston College | 58% | 59 | 55 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 7 |
| Florida Atlantic | 50% | 51 | 42 | 9 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 7 |
| Maryland | 55% | 69 | 56 | 13 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 7 |
| Indiana | 42% | 83 | 74 | 9 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 6 |
| San Jose State | 50% | 70 | 60 | 10 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 5 |
| Auburn | 92% | 65 | 62 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 4 |
| Central Michigan | 50% | 59 | 51 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 3 |
| Northwestern | 42% | 48 | 48 | 0 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 3 |
| San Diego State | 58% | 66 | 51 | 15 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 58% | 68 | 53 | 15 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 2 |
| Wyoming | 42% | 67 | 61 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 33% | 57 | 53 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 1 |
| Syracuse | 50% | 48 | 49 | -1 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 1 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 73% | 54 | 58 | -4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 0 |
| Toledo | 58% | 59 | 64 | -5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | -1 |
| UTSA | 58% | 53 | 48 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | -2 |
| Ohio | 58% | 50 | 54 | -4 | 22 | 21 | 1 | -3 |
| TCU | 33% | 44 | 45 | -1 | 28 | 30 | -2 | -3 |
| Akron | 42% | 42 | 46 | -4 | 19 | 21 | -2 | -6 |
| Minnesota | 67% | 49 | 59 | -10 | 18 | 15 | 3 | -7 |
| North Carolina State | 25% | 53 | 60 | -7 | 21 | 21 | 0 | -7 |
| Arkansas State | 58% | 50 | 64 | -14 | 19 | 13 | 6 | -8 |
| SMU | 50% | 50 | 51 | -1 | 16 | 23 | -7 | -8 |
| South Florida | 18% | 37 | 43 | -6 | 24 | 26 | -2 | -8 |
| Penn State | 58% | 48 | 56 | -8 | 20 | 22 | -2 | -10 |
| Pittsburgh | 50% | 46 | 55 | -9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | -10 |
| UNLV | 55% | 51 | 67 | -16 | 19 | 13 | 6 | -10 |
| Utah | 42% | 56 | 57 | -1 | 16 | 25 | -9 | -10 |
| Wake Forest | 36% | 32 | 40 | -8 | 21 | 23 | -2 | -10 |
| West Virginia | 33% | 59 | 65 | -6 | 28 | 32 | -4 | -10 |
| Kentucky | 17% | 48 | 60 | -12 | 15 | 15 | 0 | -12 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 50% | 51 | 59 | -8 | 19 | 23 | -4 | -12 |
| Tulane | 58% | 35 | 59 | -24 | 33 | 21 | 12 | -12 |
| Nebraska | 67% | 55 | 56 | -1 | 16 | 28 | -12 | -13 |
| Memphis | 27% | 38 | 46 | -8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | -14 |
| Troy | 50% | 72 | 80 | -8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | -15 |
| Tulsa | 25% | 49 | 55 | -6 | 24 | 34 | -10 | -16 |
| Arkansas | 25% | 47 | 55 | -8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | -17 |
| Florida | 33% | 37 | 52 | -15 | 18 | 20 | -2 | -17 |
| Rutgers | 46% | 55 | 62 | -7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | -17 |
| Temple | 17% | 59 | 70 | -11 | 13 | 19 | -6 | -17 |
| Texas State | 50% | 41 | 60 | -19 | 19 | 17 | 2 | -17 |
| Hawaii | 0% | 64 | 72 | -8 | 24 | 34 | -10 | -18 |
| Kent State | 33% | 43 | 57 | -14 | 13 | 17 | -4 | -18 |
| Tennessee | 42% | 46 | 65 | -19 | 25 | 24 | 1 | -18 |
| Washington State | 50% | 48 | 61 | -13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | -18 |
| Georgia State | 0% | 58 | 70 | -12 | 16 | 23 | -7 | -19 |
| UAB | 17% | 60 | 73 | -13 | 14 | 20 | -6 | -19 |
| Illinois | 33% | 64 | 74 | -10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | -20 |
| Iowa State | 25% | 45 | 64 | -19 | 21 | 22 | -1 | -20 |
| New Mexico | 25% | 64 | 80 | -16 | 10 | 14 | -4 | -20 |
| Kansas | 25% | 41 | 64 | -23 | 24 | 23 | 1 | -22 |
| Nevada | 33% | 50 | 79 | -29 | 18 | 11 | 7 | -22 |
| Western Michigan | 8% | 38 | 54 | -16 | 19 | 26 | -7 | -23 |
| Connecticut | 18% | 38 | 60 | -22 | 22 | 25 | -3 | -25 |
| Air Force | 17% | 40 | 62 | -22 | 9 | 13 | -4 | -26 |
| Army | 27% | 34 | 65 | -31 | 17 | 14 | 3 | -28 |
| Purdue | 8% | 31 | 57 | -26 | 20 | 22 | -2 | -28 |
| Southern Mississippi | 8% | 46 | 55 | -9 | 19 | 38 | -19 | -28 |
| Miami (OH) | 0% | 25 | 52 | -27 | 19 | 21 | -2 | -29 |
| Idaho | 8% | 51 | 76 | -25 | 19 | 27 | -8 | -33 |
| Colorado | 31% | 43 | 74 | -31 | 21 | 24 | -3 | -34 |
| New Mexico State | 17% | 49 | 78 | -29 | 20 | 26 | -6 | -35 |
| Massachusetts | 8% | 35 | 65 | -30 | 19 | 26 | -7 | -37 |
| Virginia | 17% | 34 | 69 | -35 | 21 | 26 | -5 | -40 |
| California | 8% | 58 | 87 | -29 | 13 | 28 | -15 | -44 |
| UTEP | 17% | 41 | 81 | -40 | 12 | 18 | -6 | -46 |
| Florida International | 8% | 25 | 68 | -43 | 13 | 20 | -7 | -50 |
| Eastern Michigan | 17% | 38 | 80 | -42 | 11 | 23 | -12 | -54 |