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Don't tell JW that stats are for losers

We can all fall in love with the story (Chelf) or the arm (Lunt), but 2012's most productive QB was neither of those, and it wasn't really that close.


This would normally be an extremely difficult argument to make, but 2012 was not a normal season, as we all know the hoops OSU had to jump through with its bevy of quarterbacks.

So here we are again, spring football is at hand, and the usual suspects are competing for the chance to lead one of the country's most potent offenses.

Or maybe not.

Seems "The Train" has established himself, with Lunt almost guaranteed a red shirt and the Walshinator relegated to Tebow duty. According to Gundy, Chelf is the man. Period. He's getting all the snaps with the first team.

While I'm not going to get my knickers in a twist about who starts, I will argue that the choice shouldn't be so clear. IMO, the difference might only be 1 or 2 wins, but those could be really SIGNIFICANT wins.

In my post game assessment of the loss at Baylor (wait, I have to go puke....ok, better now) I said this...

"I think it's funny that the QB we all liked to dog about his passing skills has the highest completion %, fewest interceptions, best average yards per completion, best average yards per game, and the best QB rating of the three."

Just so I'm clear, hear are some stats that I tweeted out Wednesday evening...

  • Completion %
    Walsh 66.9%...his low was 62%
    Lunt 61.8%
    Chelf 60.4%...and he didn't crest 60% until the bowl game. That's right...his 4 starts prior to pummeling Purdue yielded a completion % BELOW 60%. He produced 71% against West Virginia, but then went 52%, 51%, and 59%. That's not very good AT ALL for a QB designed to run a spread passing attack.
  • Efficiency rating...this isn't even close...
    Walsh "full" games his low was 140.4 with a high of 211.2
    Chelf "full" games his low was 112.3 with a high of 191.1
    Lunt 137.31
  • Yards per attempt
    Walsh 9.6
    Lunt 8.5
    Chelf 8.1
  • Yard per completion
    Walsh 14.4
    Lunt 13.7
    Chelf 13.3
  • Attempts to TD ratio
    Walsh 12.5 to 1
    Chelf 13.1 to 1
    Lunt 21.8 to 1
  • Attempts to interception ratio
    Walsh 54.3 to 1
    Chelf 32.8 to 1
    Lunt 18.7 to 1
  • TD to interception ratio
    Walsh 4.3 to 1
    Chelf 2.5 to 1
    Lunt 1 to 1.2
  • Average YPG for "full" games...for this, I only included games where the QB took all but a few snaps;
    Lunt 380...a little misleading, as he only played two complete games (Arizona-436 & TCU-324)
    Walsh 330...high of 415 against Iowa State (this stat includes ULL). Three out of 4 games he threw for 300+.
    Chelf 277...high of 333 against Baylor, and that was his ONLY game over 300 yards.
  • One last tidbit...Walsh was the only one NOT to throw a pick 6 in 2012
Say what you want, slice and dice the numbers and debate the level of opponents all you want, but I think the process deserves a little more attention before annointing the QB who produced the lowest completion %, lowest avg ypg, ypa and ypc of the group in 2012. Just a reminder...this is an offense based on pass first. Walsh/Lunt recorded only one sub-300 yard game out of 6 "full" games. Out of 4 "full" games, Chelf recorded 3 sub-300 yard performances.

I would say Monken and Gundy's talent evaluation from last spring was not very far off.

Don't get me wrong, I like Chelf, but I think many of us fell in love with Choo Choo and a couple of wins. Start breaking down the stats and, well, I'm not so in love with him leading the charge with his arm right now. Prior to playing Purdue (who was AWFUL), Chelf was at the helm of OSU's first consecutive losses since 2009, and he didn't look that sharp doing it. He gets somewhat of a pass, as Walsh does for Texas, since the defense made key mistakes that were far more costly in those games. But still, I wonder if Gundy isn't pulling his QB schtick again, with the best candidate possibly languishing behind loyalty.

In the end, I'll hope that Chelf can address and improve his accuracy and consistency with some help from the new OC. He is a good leader on the field, and it is likely that, unless Yurcich really goes to the mat for a change, Chelf will be the starter against Mississippi State.