I'll warn you now, the tale of the tape isn't pretty. I'm not sure that I've ever seen two ranked teams within 3 spots of each other, be so lopsided statistically. The numbers say the Horned Frogs will walk away with this one, but that's not going to happen.
Football is not merely a sport of cold hard stats. It's a game of passion, fatigue, and heartbreak. Something TCU knows all too well after last week.
The Frogs announced their arrival as a Big 12 contender by ending the Sooners dream of an undefeated season two weeks ago. As OU was left to figure out what went wrong, the Horned Frogs turned right around and faced the defending Big 12 Champs last Saturday.
The Horned Frogs went into Waco and manhandled the Bears. Well, for three quarters that is. Disaster struck in the fourth as the chihuahuas behind the glass scored 24 points to send TCU back to Fort Worth losers for the first time this season.
Oklahoma State is coming into this game off a five game win streak, but things aren't going quite as Cowboy Nation had hoped. The offensive line is about as effective as a screen door on a submarine, and Mike Yurcich isn't doing much to mask the problem. Don't be surprised to see more Gundy-esque play calling this week, as I have a feeling that by passing on Special Teams duties, he's freed up time to take a more active role in the offense.
The Cowboys have their work cut out for them, but it's a job they can get done.
Being At The Right Spot, At The Right Time
TCU is coming off of back-to-back top 10 match-ups, and suffering the kind of loss the Frogs did to the Bears is more than demoralizing. It's soul crushing. They did a great job of coming out focused after the OU win, but even without the heartbreak, that level of play is difficult to keep up for three weeks in a row.
Like the Pokes broke Texas A&M in 2011, Baylor may have just done the same to TCU.
Go Big Or Go Home
According to folks in the know, if TCU has one weakness it's against the deep ball.
"TCU's biggest weakness is giving up the deep ball--especially to the slot receiver." Marshall Weber of Frogs O' War said in this week's "Questions for the Enemy"
You don't say...
I don't even know if I really need to expand on this. Daxx "Air" Garman is infatuated with the deep ball, and the Cowboys have perhaps the most dynamic player in all of football capable of playing in the slot. If that's the key to beating TCU, we might as well put a "W" on the board, and go to straight to postgame celebrations!
To be fair to TCU though, is there a secondary in the country that could account for Jhajuan Seales, Brandon Sheperd, James Washington, David Glidden, Marcell Ateman, and Tyreek Hill? If the Cowboys can keep Garman's shirt clean, this may be the breakout game this offense needs.
Look for the Cowboys to pull off the upset tomorrow! Just uh... don't look at the tale of the tape for any reasons as to why.
|TALE OF |
|#15 OK State||#12 TCU|
|W-L Record (Conf.)||5-1 (3-0)||4-1 (1-1)|
|Head To Head Win %||0.583||0.417|
|Points Per Game (Rank)||37.2 (26th)||45.8 (3rd)|
|Points Allowed Per Game (Rank)||24.7 (62nd)||23.0 (51st)|
|F/+ Rating (Rank)||14.8% (30th)||28.9% (5th)|
|FEI Rating (Rank)||.094 (45th)||.249 (4th)|
|S&P+ Rating (Rank)||210.2 (48th)||236.1 (13th)|
|Opponent Win Percentage||42.44%||56.55%|
|Strength Of Schedule Power Rating (Rank)||73rd||13th|
|Home vs Away Power Rating (Rank)||A: -2.0 (76th)||H: 16.9 (15th)|
|AVG Time Of Possession||28:20||29:02|
|Penalty Yards Per Game||62.17||73.00|
|Offensive FEI (Rank)||.055 (57th)||.477 (16th)|
|Yards Per Game (Rank)||420.67 (62nd)||510.00 (15th)|
|Yards Per Play (Rank)||5.70 (64th)||6.13 (42nd)|
|Passing Yards Per Game||265.67||625.20|
|Passing Yards Per Attempt||8.13 (33rd)||7.20 (62nd)|
|Pass Completion Percentage||57.15%||57.52%|
|Passing Touchdowns Per Game||1.83||2.60|
|Rushing Yards Per Game||155.00||184.80|
|Rush Yards Per Attempt||3.77||4.84|
|Rushing Touchdowns Per Game||2.00||2.60|
|1st Downs Per Game||21.67||26.40|
|3rd Down Conversion Percentage||43.29%||40.26%|
|4th Down Conversion Percentage||67.00%||50.00%|
|Pick 6's Thrown||1||1|
|Sacks Given Up Per Game||2.67||1.60|
|Red Zone Attempts Per Game||4.17||5.80|
|Red Zone Points Per Attempt||4.68||5.31|
|Red Zone Scoring Percentage||91.85%||89.66%|
|Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage||38.00%||46.15%|
|Defensive FEI (Rank)||-.354 (28th)||-.423 (22nd)|
|Yards Allowed Per Game (Rank)||378.17 (54th)||379.80 (56th)|
|Yards Allowed Per Play (Rank)||5.12 (52nd)||4.46 (10th)|
|Passing Yards Allowed Per Game||267.33||240.00|
|Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt||7.00||6.94|
|Opponent Pass Completion Percentage||56.77%||47.40%|
|Passing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game||1.67||1.60|
|Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game||110.83||139.80|
|Rush Yards Allowed Per Attempt||3.77||4.84|
|Rushing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game||2.00||2.60|
|1st Downs Allowed Per Game||20.175||19.60|
|Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Percentage||33.33%||27.78%|
|Opponent 4th Down Conversion Percentage||22.00%||64.71%|
|Interceptions Returned For A Touchdown||1||2|
|Team QB Sacks Per Game||3.0||3.8|
|Team Tackles For A Loss Per Game||7.0||8.6|
|Opponent Red Zone Points Per Attempt||4.09||4.39|
|Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage||85.71%||84.62%|
|Opponent Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage||38.00%||46.15%|
|Special Teams FEI (Rank)||3.915 (4th)||3.081 (7th)|
|Field Goals Made Per Game||2.33||1.80|
|Field Goal Percentage||77.67%||75.00%|
|Extra Point Percentage||100.00%||96.55%|
|2-Point Conversion Percentage||-||-|
|Yards Per Punt||41.49||40.42|
|Punt Yards Per Return||9.36||10.47|
|Opponent Punt Yards Per Return||3.17||-0.50|
|Punt Returns For A Touchdown||0||0|
|Punt Return Touchdowns Allowed||0||0|
|Yards Per Kickoff Return||22.79||25.17|
|Opponent Yards Per Kickoff Return||19.08||20.48|
|Kickoffs Returned For A Touchdown||2||1|
|Kickoff Return Touchdowns Allowed||0||0|
F/+, FEI, S&P+, Offensive Efficiency & Defensive Efficiency Stats Are Provided By FootballOutsiders.com
Strength of Schedule & Home vs Away Power Ratings Provided By TeamRankings.com