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Why Oklahoma State Will Beat TCU

Oklahoma State has been skipping through a light schedule of warm-up games, but now it's time to get serious.

I'll warn you now, the tale of the tape isn't pretty. I'm not sure that I've ever seen two ranked teams within 3 spots of each other, be so lopsided statistically. The numbers say the Horned Frogs will walk away with this one, but that's not going to happen.

Football is not merely a sport of cold hard stats. It's a game of passion, fatigue, and heartbreak. Something TCU knows all too well after last week.

The Frogs announced their arrival as a Big 12 contender by ending the Sooners dream of an undefeated season two weeks ago. As OU was left to figure out what went wrong, the Horned Frogs turned right around and faced the defending Big 12 Champs last Saturday.

The Horned Frogs went into Waco and manhandled the Bears. Well, for three quarters that is. Disaster struck in the fourth as the chihuahuas behind the glass scored 24 points to send TCU back to Fort Worth losers for the first time this season.

Oklahoma State is coming into this game off a five game win streak, but things aren't going quite as Cowboy Nation had hoped. The offensive line is about as effective as a screen door on a submarine, and Mike Yurcich isn't doing much to mask the problem. Don't be surprised to see more Gundy-esque play calling this week, as I have a feeling that by passing on Special Teams duties, he's freed up time to take a more active role in the offense.

The Cowboys have their work cut out for them, but it's a job they can get done.

Being At The Right Spot, At The Right Time

TCU is coming off of back-to-back top 10 match-ups, and suffering the kind of loss the Frogs did to the Bears is more than demoralizing. It's soul crushing. They did a great job of coming out focused after the OU win, but even without the heartbreak, that level of play is difficult to keep up for three weeks in a row.

Like the Pokes broke Texas A&M in 2011, Baylor may have just done the same to TCU.

Go Big Or Go Home

According to folks in the know, if TCU has one weakness it's against the deep ball.

"TCU's biggest weakness is giving up the deep ball--especially to the slot receiver." Marshall Weber of Frogs O' War said in this week's "Questions for the Enemy"

You don't say...

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I don't even know if I really need to expand on this. Daxx "Air" Garman is infatuated with the deep ball, and the Cowboys have perhaps the most dynamic player in all of football capable of playing in the slot. If that's the key to beating TCU, we might as well put a "W" on the board, and go to straight to postgame celebrations!

To be fair to TCU though, is there a secondary in the country that could account for Jhajuan Seales, Brandon Sheperd, James Washington, David Glidden, Marcell Ateman, and Tyreek Hill? If the Cowboys can keep Garman's shirt clean, this may be the breakout game this offense needs.

Look for the Cowboys to pull off the upset tomorrow! Just uh... don't look at the tale of the tape for any reasons as to why.

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TALE OF
THE TAPE
OK State TCU
#15 OK State #12 TCU
W-L Record (Conf.) 5-1 (3-0) 4-1 (1-1)
Head To Head Win % 0.583 0.417
Points Per Game (Rank) 37.2 (26th) 45.8 (3rd)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank) 24.7 (62nd) 23.0 (51st)
F/+ Rating (Rank) 14.8% (30th) 28.9% (5th)
FEI Rating (Rank) .094 (45th) .249 (4th)
S&P+ Rating (Rank) 210.2 (48th) 236.1 (13th)
Opponent Win Percentage 42.44% 56.55%
Strength Of Schedule Power Rating (Rank) 73rd 13th
Home vs Away Power Rating (Rank) A: -2.0 (76th) H: 16.9 (15th)
AVG Time Of Possession 28:20 29:02
Turnover Margin -0.17 +1.60
Penalty Yards Per Game 62.17 73.00
OFFENSE OSU TCU
Offensive FEI (Rank) .055 (57th) .477 (16th)
Yards Per Game (Rank) 420.67 (62nd) 510.00 (15th)
Yards Per Play (Rank) 5.70 (64th) 6.13 (42nd)
Passing Yards Per Game 265.67 625.20
Passing Yards Per Attempt 8.13 (33rd) 7.20 (62nd)
Pass Completion Percentage 57.15% 57.52%
Passing Touchdowns Per Game 1.83 2.60
Rushing Yards Per Game 155.00 184.80
Rush Yards Per Attempt 3.77 4.84
Rushing Touchdowns Per Game 2.00 2.60
1st Downs Per Game 21.67 26.40
3rd Down Conversion Percentage 43.29% 40.26%
4th Down Conversion Percentage 67.00% 50.00%
Interceptions Thrown 6 3
Pick 6's Thrown 1 1
Fumbles Lost 2 5
Sacks Given Up Per Game 2.67 1.60
Red Zone Attempts Per Game 4.17 5.80
Red Zone Points Per Attempt 4.68 5.31
Red Zone Scoring Percentage 91.85% 89.66%
Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage 38.00% 46.15%
DEFENSE OSU TCU
Defensive FEI (Rank) -.354 (28th) -.423 (22nd)
Yards Allowed Per Game (Rank) 378.17 (54th) 379.80 (56th)
Yards Allowed Per Play (Rank) 5.12 (52nd) 4.46 (10th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game 267.33 240.00
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt 7.00 6.94
Opponent Pass Completion Percentage 56.77% 47.40%
Passing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game 1.67 1.60
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game 110.83 139.80
Rush Yards Allowed Per Attempt 3.77 4.84
Rushing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game 2.00 2.60
1st Downs Allowed Per Game 20.175 19.60
Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Percentage 33.33% 27.78%
Opponent 4th Down Conversion Percentage 22.00% 64.71%
Interceptions 7 9
Interceptions Returned For A Touchdown 1 2
Recovered Fumbles 0 6
Team QB Sacks Per Game 3.0 3.8
Team Tackles For A Loss Per Game 7.0 8.6
Opponent Red Zone Points Per Attempt 4.09 4.39
Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage 85.71% 84.62%
Opponent Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage 38.00% 46.15%
SPECIAL TEAMS OSU TCU
Special Teams FEI (Rank) 3.915 (4th) 3.081 (7th)
Field Goals Made Per Game 2.33 1.80
Field Goal Percentage 77.67% 75.00%
Extra Point Percentage 100.00% 96.55%
2-Point Conversion Percentage - -
Blocked Kicks 3 0
Blocked Punts 1 0
Yards Per Punt 41.49 40.42
Punt Yards Per Return 9.36 10.47
Opponent Punt Yards Per Return 3.17 -0.50
Punt Returns For A Touchdown 0 0
Punt Return Touchdowns Allowed 0 0
Yards Per Kickoff Return 22.79 25.17
Opponent Yards Per Kickoff Return 19.08 20.48
Kickoffs Returned For A Touchdown 2 1
Kickoff Return Touchdowns Allowed 0 0
TOTAL ADVANTAGES 24 42

Oklahoma State
F/+, FEI, S&P+, Offensive Efficiency & Defensive Efficiency Stats Are Provided By FootballOutsiders.com
Strength of Schedule & Home vs Away Power Ratings Provided By TeamRankings.com