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Tubby Smith.
That's the one thing standing in the way of what should be an OSU win on the road.
Talent-wise, it's not even close, however the sideline acumen of Smith is so far beyond that of Ford that it could easily make up for the gap in athletes.
On the surface it looks like the Cowboys should cruise...but if you scan through the major stats and take into account the last three games, there are plenty of potholes that could cause OSU some difficulty, courtesy of Big12Sports.com.
| CONFERENCE STATS & RANKING | ||
| OFFENSE | OSU | Tech |
| Scoring | 79.4 (3) | 68.7 (8) |
| FT% | 71.4 (6) | 74.5 (2) |
| Avg FT M-A | 21-29 | 17-22 |
| FG% | 44.0 (5) | 44.7 (4) |
| Avg FG M-A | 26-59 | 23-52 |
| 3PT FG% | 34.1 (6) | 34.5 (5) |
| Avg M-A | 7-20 | 5-16 |
| DEFENSE | ||
| Scoring | 76.3 (7) | 70.1 (t2) |
| FG% | 42.2 (4) | 44.5 (7) |
| Avg FG M-A | 25-60 | 23-53 |
| 3PT FG% | 33.5 (4) | 32.3 (1) |
| Avg M-A | 7-21 | 6-18 |
| Rebounding Margin | -3.1 (8) | +2.7 (4) |
| TO Margin | +2.8 (3) | -2.9 (9) |
These numbers can be a little misleading, just like in football, where the pace of play is likely more responsible for the production on both sides of the ball than actual athleticism and execution.Tubby keeps it nice and slow, which minimizes the exposure for a team that is going to lose the "talent" battle most nights.
While the Cowboys have 3 players in the top 10 in scoring in the Big 12 (Smart, Brown, Nash), the Red Raiders have just 1 in the top 20 (Crockett).
KenPom predicts 75-71 with 65% confidence. That's not making me feel all warm and fuzzy. Here's the basic stuff from them on both teams, Big 12 games only:
Oklahoma State
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg |
| Adj. Efficiency | 115.5 19 | 97.0 47 | 104.3 |
| Adj. Tempo | 70.3 48 | 67 | |
| Avg. Poss. Length | 15.5 13 | 18.3 267 | 17.8 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG%: | 53.7 30 | 44.9 34 | 49.5 |
| Turnover %: | 14.7 11 | 20.0 77 | 18.5 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 29.5 236 | 31.2 164 | 31.6 |
| FTA/FGA: | 50.4 25 | 39.1 141 | 40.8 |
| Miscellaneous Components | |||
| 3P%: | 36.6 80 | 31.6 59 | 34.4 |
| 2P%: | 53.1 31 | 43.6 36 | 48.5 |
| FT%: | 71.5 121 | 68.5 122 | 69.7 |
| Block%: | 9.0 121 | 13.9 33 | 9.8 |
| Steal%: | 8.8 146 | 10.8 45 | 9.1 |
| Style Components | |||
| 3PA/FGA: | 32.9 164 | 33.4 203 | 32.8 |
| A/FGM: | 50.4 203 | 44.3 20 | 51.8 |
| Defensive Fingerprint: | Mostly Man | ||
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | |||
| 3-Pointers: | 25.2 203 | 27.1 155 | 26.6 |
| 2-Pointers: | 49.7 216 | 49.9 206 | 51.1 |
| Free Throws: | 25.1 50 | 23.0 145 | 22.3 |
| Strength of Schedule | |||
| Components: | 106.1 78 | 102.1 53 | 104.3 |
| Overall: | .6091 61 | 0.5 | |
| Non-conference: | .4475 248 | 0.5 | |
| Personnel | |||
| Bench Minutes: | 27.6% 247 | 30.80% | |
Texas Tech
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg |
| Efficiency | 108.9 3 | 110.9 8 | 104.3 |
| Tempo | 62.2 10 | 67 | |
| Avg. Poss. Length | 20.9 10 | 17.8 8 | 17.8 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG%: | 49.9 4 | 49.9 6 | 49.5 |
| Turnover %: | 18.8 8 | 14.3 10 | 18.5 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 36.6 4 | 32.4 9 | 31.6 |
| FTA/FGA: | 42.6 5 | 43.5 6 | 40.8 |
| Miscellaneous Components | |||
| 3P%: | 34.5 5 | 32.3 1 | 34.4 |
| 2P%: | 49.1 4 | 50.6 8 | 48.5 |
| FT%: | 74.5 2 | 76.7 10 | 69.7 |
| Block%: | 9.5 1 | 10.4 5 | 9.8 |
| Steal%: | 9.2 8 | 7.2 9 | 9.1 |
| Style Components | |||
| 3PA/FGA: | 30.2 8 | 33.3 5 | 32.8 |
| A/FGM: | 51.9 6 | 48.3 3 | 51.8 |
| Defensive Fingerprint: | Inconclusive | ||
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | |||
| 3-Pointers: | 23.8 9 | 24.2 8 | 26.6 |
| 2-Pointers: | 52.1 4 | 50.7 4 | 51.1 |
| Free Throws: | 24.1 6 | 25.0 4 | 22.3 |
| Strength of Schedule | |||
| Components: | 106.1 77 | 103.3 106 | 104.3 |
| Overall: | .5771 84 | 0.5 | |
| Non-conference: | .4537 238 | 0.5 | |
| Personnel | |||
| Bench Minutes: | 32.9% 118 | 30.80% | |
Here are the stats for the major contributors, courtesy of ESPN:
| Player | MIN | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
| Oklahoma State | ||||||||||
| Marcus Smart | 31.4 | 17.3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 41.9% | 72.6% | 28.2% |
| Markel Brown | 33.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 48.6% | 77.1% | 37.6% |
| Le'Bryan Nash | 28.5 | 14.6 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 53.7% | 71.7% | 0.0% |
| Phil Forte, III | 23.9 | 12.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.6 | 45.8% | 91.8% | 47.3% |
| Brian Williams | 25.9 | 7.8 | 4 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1 | 52.5% | 71.9% | 27.3% |
| Kamari Murphy | 24 | 6 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1 | 57.1% | 51.2% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Hammonds | 6.4 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 21.4% | 50.0% | 14.3% |
| Texas Tech | MIN | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
| Jaye Crockett | 29.2 | 14.4 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 55.3% | 81.0% | 33.3% |
| Jordan Tolbert | 26 | 11.1 | 6 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 57.8% | 75.0% | 31.8% |
| Robert Turner | 28.5 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 39.2% | 69.9% | 29.3% |
| Dusty Hannahs | 22.6 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 43.1% | 91.7% | 40.2% |
| Toddrick Gotcher | 26.7 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 38.0% | 71.8% | 33.3% |
| Dejan Kravic | 21 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 48.9% | 73.0% | 50.0% |
| Aaron Ross | 10.9 | 4 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 47.4% | 81.5% | 47.1% |
| Randy Onwuasor | 12.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.3 | 41.0% | 61.8% | 18.2% |
| Jamal Williams, Jr. | 11.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 25.9% | 61.1% | 19.4% |
| Kader Tapsoba | 10.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 60.0% | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Foster | 6.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 53.6% | 62.5% | 0.0% |
Not sure how many of these guys are contributing, but looking at this list one might think depth could be an issue for OSU in this game. The positive here is that Tech doesn't play at a fast pace, so Ford's limited bench shouldn't be a huge factor unless fouls become a problem.
Win this game and the Cowboys stop the bleeding. Lose this game, and Holder might start a new fundraising campaign with a goal of $14 million by the end of February.
Not sure which I'm hoping for.
Game will be carried on ESPNU at 8:30pm Central. Here's the game preview from Viva The Matadors.
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GO POKES!!!