Blowouts rule in the modern era of Oklahoma State vs TCU

Unlike West Virginia, these two programs have a long and healthy history with only one major hiccup on the schedule. The entire series is available at the bottom of this post.

From 1915 to 1950, TCU and Oklahoma A&M played 16 times, with the Aggies enjoying a 9-6-1 record, including a 34-0 thrashing of the Horned Frogs in the 1945 Cotton Bowl.

The two have met 10 times since 1990 and annually since TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, splitting this part of series history 5-5.

From 1951-1989? Just two meetings, consecutive matchups in 1970 and 1971, with OSU claiming the 1970 contest in Stillwater and the 1971 game in Ft Worth ending in a 14-14 tie.

All in all, the Cowboys own the series 15-11-2, as well as holding a winning record of 4-2 since TCU became a conference opponent.

While the series has obviously been competitive, it’s a tale of two eras.

From 1915 to 1993, the average score of the games is 17-15 in favor of OSU.

Since TCU joined Big 12 play, the average score of the games is 30-24 in favor of OSU.

That however doesn’t tell us the whole story, and that whole story tells us this coming Saturday is likely to be a sizeable blowout in Ft Worth.

In the 22 meetings prior to becoming conference foes, 15 were decided by eight or fewer points. Only four games were decided by 14 or more points. An eleven game stretch where only two games were decided by more than seven points highlights the closeness of the series prior to 2012.

However, since tangling in the Big 12 (six meetings) not a single game has been decided by less than 13 points, and four have been 20+ point blowouts.

Oklahoma State has enjoyed the better defensive production, surprisingly, holding TCU under 14 points on three separate occasions, although they have given up 40+ twice. Offensively, the Cowboys have only been held under 24 points once (42-9 loss in 2014), but have put up more than 36 just once (49-29 in 2015, Gus Johnson meets James Washington).

Neither team has celebrated long streaks (thank you Jesus). OSU won four consecutive back in the 1940’s, with TCU winning three consecutive on a couple of occasions. Since getting back together in 1990, both have had three game streaks. In Big 12 play only OSU has had consecutive wins.

This is a big game for TCU with bowl eligibility on the line on their Senior Day, while the Cowboys will have only a slightly better bowl destination potentially in the wings with a win. Despite the historical data I expect this to be a close game. TCU’s offense shouldn’t blow out Oklahoma State, and Patterson’s dilapidated defense will probably put up a fight like they did against Baylor and slow down an OSU offense that may play flat coming off the big win over West Virginia. If anyone gets blown it should be TCU, which means all potential results are on the table.

Great...