Thanks to TCU and Baylor (and the stupidity of humans) the Big 12 instituted a championship game that is a guaranteed rematch from the regular season and a new set of tiebreaker rules for literally every place from top to bottom in the conference.
With two weeks to go in Big 12 play these tiebreaker rules are watching closely as several potential scenarios could reach into several levels of the list. You can see the full tiebreaker layout here. I will be focusing on the specific rule that applies in each scenario, but keep in mind that each time a team is eliminated from the list, either by winning or losing a tiebreaker, if there are still ties to break the rules “start over.” The sections that will get applied the most often are “head-to-head” (a) and “mini round-robin” (b/1)
All of the scenarios involve three-loss teams, meaning either OU and/or Baylor need to lose both of their remaining games. The Sooners host TCU then head to Stillwater for Bedlam so yea, that COULD happen.
Baylor hosts Texas then travels to Kansas so no, that is not likely to happen, but for sake of word count we are going to include that possibility as it is the ONLY one that gives the Longhorns hope.
The other contenders are Iowa State, Texas, and Oklahoma State, but I have not yet found a scenario by which Iowa State would get in. The remaining schedules for each are:
Iowa State…KU, at KState
Texas…at Baylor, Texas Tech
OSU…at West Virginia, OU
We will start this deep dive off with the most likely scenarios first which all involve Oklahoma and assume Baylor is already in:
OU & Iowa State…OU wins head to head
OU & Texas…OU wins head to head
OU and OSU…Oklahoma State wins head to head
OU, Iowa State, Texas…Sooners win based on “round robin” of these three teams (OU beat both)
OU, OSU, Iowa State…Cowboys win based on “round robin” of these three teams
OU, OSU, Texas…This is one of the messier ones. The “mini round-robin” is a tie as everyone is 1-1. Section b/2 would ask how each faired against Baylor. This would knock out OSU, then OU wins head-to-head against Texas
OU, OSU, Iowa State, Texas…Iowa State would be eliminated, then revert to Scenario 6 in which OU wins.
Now for the more unlikely scenarios which involve Baylor and presume Oklahoma is in:
Baylor and Texas…Texas wins head-to-head
Baylor and Iowa State…Baylor wins head-to-head
Baylor and OSU…Baylor wins head-to-head
Baylor, Texas, Iowa State…another messy one like Scenario 6, but even worse as they all lost to OU. Section b/2 means you essentially work your way from top to bottom of the rest of the conference, so who sits in 5th place would be HUGE and is almost impossible to tell at this time because that would likely have to be determined by tiebreaker rules. Oh boy…
Baylor, Iowa State, OSU…Baylor wins “round robin”
Baylor, Texas, OSU…The Cowboys are eliminated and Texas wins the head-to-head with Baylor
Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, OSU…The Cyclones and Cowboys are eliminated and Texas wins head-to-head with Baylor
Now for the really crazy shit which presumes both OU and Baylor both lose out and thus involves at least three teams for two spots in the Big 12 title game:
OU, Baylor, Texas…OU wins “round robin” and Texas wins head-to-head with Baylor
OU, Baylor, Iowa State…OU wins “round robin” and Baylor wins head-to-head with Iowa State
OU, Baylor, OSU…This is a god-awful mess as it would all depend on who is the 4th, 5th, and possibly 6th place teams in the Big 12 standings. The most likely scenario involves Texas which would give OU the win, then Baylor would win the head-to-head with OSU.
OU, Baylor, Iowa State, Texas…OU wins “round robin” then revert to Scenario 11. What fun…
OU, Baylor, Iowa State, OSU…Iowa State is eliminated and revert to Scenario 17.
OU, Baylor, Texas, OSU…OU and Texas win “round robin”
OU, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, OSU…Sooners win “round robin” and Iowa State is eliminated, then revert to Scenario 13.