Well, now that
the ass-whooping Bedlam is over with, let us a take a live look at what is needed to keep OSU’s hopes of a Big 12 title game appearance alive and KILL any chance you end up with a Texas - Oklahoma rematch...
All sorts of combinations of wins and losses could alter who ends up in Arlington for the rematch and I will do my best to discuss below.
***This was written prior to the Iowa State-Texas game. I’ve updated the scenarios referenced below***
Iowa State at Texas (Friday at 12pm ET on ABC, TX -1.0, O/U 57)
While there are TWO games that carry a lot of weight for both teams, this game is this week's 800 lb gorilla in the room.
Although the Cyclones are alone in first place they still need to win out to secure their spot in the Big 12 title game. Lose EITHER of the final two games and they could be EASILY on the outside looking in. Even though there are a ton of other scenarios I will focus on the simple ones.
Now that we've dispensed with the nonsense, let's get down to examining this game. HOW THE HELL DO YOU NOT FAVOR IOWA STATE? Really? The Longhorns by 1pt? Give me the Cyclones all day and the under cuz that is what the Big 12 has been about all season.
- Iowa State wins out and they are in the title game;
Iowa State loses to Texas and beats West Virginia to finish 7-2. This would likely result in either a 3 or 4-way tie with OU and Texas, and possibly OSU. In the 3-way tie the tiebreaker would come down to what team is in 4th place. If it's the Cowboys then the Cyclones are out b/c both OU and Texas beat OSU. If it's Kansas State then Iowa State and Texas would be in b/c they beat the Wildcats and the Sooners lost to KState. The 4-way tie including OSU would produce a Texas-OU rematch;
- Iowa State beats Texas but loses to West Virginia. This would be the least uncomfortable scenario for the Cyclones as it could result in a 3-way tie with OU and OSU. At that point it would fall to what team is in 4th place and that is highly likely to be Texas, which would eliminate the Cowboys. If Kansas State snuck in that would eliminate OU. The only bad scenario would be if West Virginia somehow ends up tied with KState and Texas for 4th place. At that point if TCU is in 7th place Iowa State would be eliminated.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (12pm ET on FOX, OSU -11.0, O/U 55)
Let's see how the Cowboys handle that post-Bedlam hangover. I heard it was a doozie.
Seriously, OSU still has a number of NOT unreasonable scenarios in which they could sneak their way back into the title game. I didn't say these scenarios were LIKELY to happen.
First off they need to beat a crappy team that has been crappy for several years now and "OH BTW HAS BEATEN OSU TWO STRAIGHT YEARS." Win out and all they need is for one of about 20,000 things to happen.
The things that are most valuable are Texas and/or OU losing another game. Any 3 or 4-way ties that involve both Texas and OU are non-starters. West Virginia winning out would be a huge help (they play OU and Iowa State).The simplest part of this is that they need to NOT step on their own "equipment" against the Rash Raiders and have OU lose to the Mountaineers. Why is that the simplest? If the Cowboys can win out, a West Virginia win against the Sooners would put OSU into the title rematch with Iowa State. Even without that, EVEN if KState loses to Baylor, should the Wildcats beat Texas in Manhattan AND the Mountaineers beat Iowa State in Ames, KState would end up in 4th place which would eliminate OU in the three way tie with the Cyclones. The other wacko scenario? If the Cowboys manage to lose one more game and WV wins out, if Texas wins out the Sooners would advance from the four-way tie at 6-3 (OSU, OU, WV, TX). Replace Texas with KState and OSU would advance. At this point Oklahoma State fans should just root for West Virginia and Kansas State to win out.
Now down to the game. I really don't know what to think because a poor performance and loss brings with it humongous turmoil and intrigue. I'll go ahead and pick OSU for the win but I don't think they cover and the offense can't do enough to scare the over.
Kansas State at Baylor (7pm ET on ESPN2, Baylor -5.5, O/U 46
This is competing for the "nobody gives a shit" game of the week in the Big 12
but since there is an extremely convoluted scenario in which KState could get into the title game we won't give them that award. I'm not going to be detailing it here as it involves Texas losing to Kansas, and not matter how badly I would love that to happen, it's not going to, not even in 2020but because the Wildcats occupy a pretty significant spot in potentially determining the Big 12 title game participants we'll give them a pass.
Don't know what to do with this game. The Wildcats haven't done anything on offense since losing Skyler Thompson and Baylor has a decent defense, so I'll go with Baylor to win and KState to cover and the under.
Oklahoma at West Virginia (Rescheduled for December 12)
Huge game for both teams, but this could be completely irrelevant now that the game has been rescheduled to December 12.
The Sooners need to win out and that ALMOST guarantees their spot in the title game. Why "ALMOST?" Because if they end up in a 3-way with Iowa State and OSU AND Kansas State manages to sit in 4th place the Sooners would be left out in the cold. Don't worry big brother, that's got about the same chance of happening as Gundy going for it on 4th down in Bedlam, trailing by 21, on OU's 39 yd line, with 12 minutes left in the game.
West Virginia needs to win out and get a fair amount of help, but it could happen. Their only chance is Texas losing to both Iowa State and Kansas State, OSU dropping two of their final three games, and the Wildcats losing to Baylor. This would leave them in a tie with OU at 6-3 and they obviously would own the head-to-head, but this could all be meaningless by the time they play the game.
TCU at Kansas (8pm ET on FS1, TCU -24.5, O/U 52.5)
Won't watch, don't care. Welcome to the "nobody gives a shit" Big 12 game of the week. The de-Horned Toads have an extremely outside shot at determining one of the spots in the Big 12 title rematch, and although it is so remote as to be laughable, this is 2020 after all. TCU to win and cover, but I'll go with the under.