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PICKS FROM JOE’S: Buckle Your Seatbelts Please...

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Four teams, three games, and Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios.

TCU v Oklahoma State Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images

If you are not intrigued, either you aren’t paying attention or you aren’t a college football fan.

With two weeks remaining, four teams with varying chances are vying for two spots in the Big 12 Bullshit Rematch.

The ONLY guaranteed outcome at this time is that one of EITHER the Sooners or the Cowboys will occupy one spot in the B12BR. Why? Because one of them will have NO MORE than two losses since they both currently have one and play each other the last week of the regular season. That trumps Iowa State who already has three losses.

OSU and OU are the only teams that control their own destiny, meaning win out and you’re in. The catch is they play each other to close the season and that loss could cost the loser dearly.

There are so many scenarios still in play it would be crazy to discuss here, but OSU probably has the clearest path going into this weekend.

Any of the following scenarios, which could easily happen, would lock Oklahoma State into the B12BR:

  • OSU and OU win
  • OSU win and Baylor loss
  • OU win and Baylor loss (this would lock in both OU and OSU)

It’s not as clean for OU because of last weekend’s loss to Baylor:

  • OU win and Baylor loss (as mentioned above)

Based on the most likely scenarios, the Sooners will probably NEED to win Bedlam to get in the B12BR. There are plenty of outcomes where the winner of Bedlam is in and loser is out, but Texas Tech’s upset of Iowa State made this path much more favorable for OSU.

HOWEVER...there is ONE scenario, ONE that is NOT unlikely, that could shut the Cowboys out of the B12BR...

If:

  • Baylor wins out
  • Iowa State beats OU
  • OSU beats Tech but loses Bedlam (again....)

That would leave Baylor, OU, and OSU tied with two losses, and would lock Iowa State into 4th place in the conference. Based on the Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios, the following would happen:

  1. Step 1...Round-robin between the tied teams...all have 1-1 records
  2. Step 2...Record against remaining teams in order of finish. This means how did you do against...IOWA STATE. Baylor advances based on their win over the Bloody Mustard Whirly Birds. That would leave OU and OSU....
  3. Step 3...ANY time a scenario concludes with ONLY two teams remaining, the H2H result will determine the winner.

Fuuuuck me....

If you told me at the beginning of the season that Oklahoma State, on the 10 year anniversary of all that happened back in 2011, all the tragedy and emotion...if you had told me that fucking Iowa State would once again be in a position to shove a stick up the ass of the Cowboys’ title hopes, I might have said “No thank you, I’ll take 8-4 and a bowl game.” Alas, here we are.

Let’s wade into the action...

Iowa State at Oklahoma (12pm ET on FOX)
OU -3.5
O/U 59.5

The Big 12 starts the day off with their "game of the day." It's not the most important, but the most impactful if only because BOTH teams are in the Big 12 Bullshit Rematch mix.

I have no clue what to think about this, but if I was making the line it would have been a pick'em. Neither team has been consistent and has shown the ability to be, well, not great. HOWEVER...both teams have played really well in particular games, so who the hell knows what we'll get here. All results are possible. I wouldn't bet this game with Philip Slavin's money.

Texas at West Virginia (12pm ET on ESPN2)
West Virginia -3.0
O/U 56.5

Monkeys and Mountain People, who could ask for more?

Meaningless, unless you are invested in the absolute and total meltdown of the Longhorns in which case this is must-watch TV. The fact that the Mountaineers are favored should tell you everything you need to know (if you have been paying attention). This is another game I have zero interest in gambling on, although I might like the over.

Kansas at TCU (4pm ET on ESPN+)
TCU -21.0
O/U 64.5

Take Kansas and the points, plus the over.

It feels like TCU has two scholarship players left on the roster and all the shine of that Baylor win was ripped off by Oklahoma State's performance last week. Kansas may be starting to believe and TCU's defense is NOT very good. Could we see the Jayhawks win multiple conference games (much less road games) in the same season for the first time since way too long ago? Worth a watch...

Baylor at Kansas State (5:30pm ET on FS1)
KState -1.0
O/U 50.0

Another situation where we can't be sure what we will get. Baylor essentially dominated OU last week after completely stepping on their collective dicks against TCU. The Bears have been far more consistent in their good performances than Iowa State, so I'm going to lean towards Baylor winning because they HAVE to in order to stay in the mix, but that O/U is too spicy....

#9 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (8pm ET on FOX)
OSU -10.0
O/U 56.5

This is the point at which my longtime OSU fandom kicks into FULL gear. I want absolutely no part of this game or the next two weeks, as my psyche has already concluded that OSU will find the most bizarre and excruciating way to end whatever dreams remain out there for the 2021 season. It's just what I am used to, don't blame me for preparing for that which has happened so many times before in my life. I'm just gonna close my eyes and pray that Squinky is on vaca and totally unplugged somewhere in the universe.

There you have it...this weekend will either simplify or complicate what’s left to digest of the Big 12 schedule.

Prepare appropriately...

GO POKES!!!