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Why Oklahoma State Will Beat Kansas

In a second week of Might vs Blight, the Cowboys have one last exhibition match against the Jayhawks before heading into the strength of their schedule.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

While Kansas fans daydream about the start of basketball season, Oklahoma State will hasten the Jayhawk's dissension to their familiar spot in the conference basement. Since Mark Mangino's time in KU Blue the Jayhawks have been the blight of the Big 12. In the last five years they've won just three conference games.

The Cowboys look to assert their might once again as it's been 20 years since the Jayhawks have beat the Cowboys in Lawrence. Let that sink in a moment. It's been two decade since Kansas, on their own field, has beaten Oklahoma State. Incredible.

Gundy Record vs Kansas

Mike Gundy's lone defeat to the Jayhawks came in his second year, as KU made a run to the Orange Bowl under Mangino. As stated above though, this KU team is worlds apart from 2007's team. At this time in 2007 they were 5-0, ranked 20th in the country, and had just knocked off in-state rival, 24th ranked Kansas State. Fast forward to today, and the Jayhawks are 2-3, winless in Big 12 play, and Charlie Weis was just sent packing mid-season.

Interim Head Coach Clint Bowen has his work cut out for him as he looks for his first win. Chances are he'll still be looking come Sunday.

Total Dominance

Looking at the tale of the tape below it's immediately clear Kansas is outmatched and outclassed. The Cowboys hold the statistical advantage on all three sides of the ball.

The Jayhawks rank 125th in offensive efficiency. That's literally just about as bad as it gets. They aren't without at least one bright spot though, Tony Pierson is a dynamic playmaker. His speed and athleticism allows him to line up as a running back or receiver, but they've struggled to utilize his talents. With no one to help Tony though, the Cowboys line will be able to keep him contained.

The Jayhawks fair a little better on the other side of the ball. They rank 44th in defensive efficiency, but that's largely due to their ability to create turnovers. If it wasn't for the offense promptly giving the ball right back, Kansas would have one of the best turnover margins in the country with 5 picks and 5 fumble recoveries. Hidden behind their ball-hawking ability is the fact they're 99th in the nation in yards allowed per play. That's a strong indication of a team susceptible to big plays.

"If you watch their game tape defensively," Coach Gundy said in his weekly press conference. "Teams aren't going up and down the field on them. They're hitting a big pass here of there, they're breaking some tackles they're getting the big run, but just consistent drives down the field on their defense is not happening."

That's okay since Oklahoma State's new all-or-nothing offense under Daxx "Air" Garman doesn't do sustained drives. It's all or nothing, all the time. They might want to have the record books close by, just in case.

Enter The Freek

This is shaping up to be, at least on paper, a breakout game for Tyreek Hill. The Cowboys are looking to get him more involved in the offense, and Kansas is teeing it up for him on special teams. The Jayhawks are 115th in special teams efficiency, and they've already allowed one punt return for six this season. HIll broke his first return last week against Iowa State, and it looks like Cowboys fans could be in for an encore performance.

Here's a look at the tale of the tape.

TALE OF
THE TAPE
OK State Kansas
#16 OK State Kansas
W-L Record (Conf.) 4-1 (2-0) 2-3 (0-2)
Head To Head Win % .523 .477
Points Per Game (Rank) 39.2 (23rd) 15.0 (124th)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank) 25.6 (69th) 27.0 (76th)
F/+ Rating (Rank) 7.6% (39th) -11.9% (105th)
FEI Rating (Rank) .110 (40th) -.175 (108th)
S&P+ Rating (Rank) 210.3 (34th) 183.0 (100th)
Opponent Win Percentage 40.94% 36.77%
Strength Of Schedule Power Rating (Rank) 83rd 95th
Home vs Away Power Rating (Rank) A - 0.0 (69th) -18.7 (114th)
AVG Time Of Possession 28:12 30:12
Turnover Margin 0.00 +0.40
Penalty Yards Per Game 65.80 74.40
OFFENSE OSU KU
Offensive Efficiency (Rank) .197 (43rd) -.834 (125th)
Yards Per Game (Rank) 449.80 (44th) 322.40 (115th)
Yards Per Play (Rank) 6.03 (52nd) 4.43 (120th)
Passing Yards Per Game 286.60 154.60
Passing Yards Per Attempt 8.69 5.30
Pass Completion Percentage 57.58% 50.00%
Passing Touchdowns Per Game 2.00 1.00
Rushing Yards Per Game 163.20 167.80
Rush Yards Per Attempt 3.89 3.88
Rushing Touchdowns Per Game 2.20 0.60
1st Downs Per Game 23.00 16.00
3rd Down Conversion Percentage 44.44% 34.09%
4th Down Conversion Percentage 60.00% 14.29%
Interceptions Thrown 5 7
Pick 6's Thrown 1 0
Fumbles Lost 0 5
Sacks Given Up Per Game 2.40 2.20
Red Zone Attempts Per Game 4.40 2.20
Red Zone Points Per Attempt 4.86 3.36
Red Zone Scoring Percentage 95.45% 63.64%
Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage 50.00% 36.36%
DEFENSE OSU KU
Defensive Efficiency (Rank) -.243 (39th) -.199 (44th)
Yards Allowed Per Game (Rank) 378.00 (58th) 419.40 (82nd)
Yards Allowed Per Play (Rank) 5.17 (53rd) 6.04 (99th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game 263.20 235.00
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt 6.85 7.39
Opponent Pass Completion Percentage 57.29% 56.60%
Passing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game 2.00 1.60
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game 114.80 184.40
Rush Yards Allowed Per Attempt 3.38 4.68
Rushing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game 0.80 1.40
1st Downs Allowed Per Game 20.6 19.8
Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Percentage 35.80% 38.46%
Opponent 4th Down Conversion Percentage 16.67% 62.50%
Interceptions 6 5
Interceptions Returned For A Touchdown 1 0
Recovered Fumbles 0 5
Team QB Sacks Per Game 3.00 1.20
Team Tackles For A Loss Per Game 6.60 6.20
Opponent Red Zone Points Per Attempt 4.06 4.29
Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage 83.33% 78.57%
Opponent Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage 38.89% 50.00%
SPECIAL TEAMS OSU KU
Special Teams Efficiency (Rank) 2.853 (6th) -2.748 (115th)
Field Goals Made Per Game 2.40 0.80
Field Goal Percentage 80.00% 50.00%
Extra Point Percentage 100.00% 100.00%
2-Point Conversion Percentage - -
Blocked Kicks 3 2
Blocked Punts 1 0
Yards Per Punt 40.84 45.00
Punt Yards Per Return 9.35 20.14
Opponent Punt Yards Per Return 3.90 6.64
Punt Returns For A Touchdown 0 1
Punt Return Touchdowns Allowed 0 0
Yards Per Kickoff Return 22.11 24.50
Opponent Yards Per Kickoff Return 19.31 31.44
Kickoffs Returned For A Touchdown 1 0
Kickoff Return Touchdowns Allowed 0 1
TOTAL ADVANTAGES 53 15

Oklahoma State
F/+, FEI, S&P+, Offensive Efficiency & Defensive Efficiency Stats Are Provided By FootballOutsiders.com
Strength of Schedule & Home vs Away Power Ratings Provided By TeamRankings.com