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ESPN’s FPI projections: Oklahoma State will be underdogs in 4 games

The metric sees the Cowboys losing to first-year coach Matt Wells and Texas Tech.

Oklahoma State v Kansas Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

ESPN released its Football Power Index ratings for the upcoming season. The metric system sees more of the same from Oklahoma State after last season’s disappointing 7-6 season.

On average, FPI projects 7.3 wins which is almost the same as last year’s 7.0 rating.

OSU is the underdog in road games against Texas, Texas Tech and Iowa State and in a home game against Bedlam rival and four-time reigning Big 12 champion Oklahoma. On the other side, the Cowboys are marginal favorites against Baylor, TCU and at West Virginia.

The Cowboys’ game against Texas Tech is the closest margin among the games OSU is not favored. The Red Raiders will be led by first-year head coach Matt Wells, who left Utah State after a 10-2 season to take the vacant position left by Kliff Kingsbury’s dismal. OSU head coach Mike Gundy’s teams are 25-5, including 17-4 in Big 12 play, against first-year coaches. Gundy will face four other first-year coaches: McNeese State, Kansas, Kansas State and West Virginia. The Cowboys’ nine-game series win streak against Tech was snapped last year in a 41-17 blowout loss.

FPI calculates a team’s strength based on returning players and other measurables to best predict a team’s performance going forward.

ESPN’s FPI 2019 OSU game-by-game win probability projections:

  • at Oregon State (FPI rank: 84) — 72.2 percent
  • McNeese State — 98.6 percent
  • at Tulsa (96) — 81.9 percent
  • at Texas (24) — 33.1 percent
  • Kansas State (57) — 71.2 percent
  • at Texas Tech (45) — 47.7 percent
  • Baylor (29) — 58 percent
  • at Iowa State (26) — 33.8 percent
  • TCU (35) — 56.9 percent
  • Kansas (108) — 92.7 percent
  • at West Virginia (58) — 57.8 percent
  • Oklahoma (6) — 23.1 percent

The Cowboys have a mere 3.2 percent chance of winning the Big 12, according to FPI.


Will Oklahoma State have more or less wins than ESPN’s FPI projection?

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  • 4%
    (8 votes)
  • 95%
    (160 votes)
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