The only thing keeping my from leaping to certain injury off my 10-foot high balcony because of what I know for certain will be the outcome of Bedlam?
The prospects of the Big 12 ending up with a dog pile of three-loss teams atop the conference standings, and yes, it is NOT all that unlikely. I’ll discuss more later on, but you will need this to follow along.
Let’s get on with a highly consequential weekend of Big 12 football.
No. 22 Texas at Kansas (3:30 p.m. CT on ESPN2, Texas -29.5, O/U 59)
I didn't promise you every game would be meaningful, and it turns out this one is actually non-existent. The game has been postponed due to injury/covid issues for Kansas. Turns out the Big 12 cares whether or not the Jayhawks have enough players positionally even if it won't impact the outcome of the game. Hell, at this point just roll the dice and predict a score. You only have to roll one die for Kansas.
Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State (3 p.m. CT on FOX, ISU -11.0, O/U 46.5)
Of all the teams with a path to the Big 12 title game, the Cyclones' journey will be the most difficult. The Wildcats are not a slouch and they are followed on the schedule by Texas in Austin and West Virginia in Ames. For Oklahoma State fans, you should be rooting hard for the Wildcats and the Neers. I'll explain later...
Eleven points feels like a lot, so I'll take Iowa State to win and cover, and the under. We'll be keeping an eye on this game as well in light of what happened with KU/Texas, as Klieman has alluded to the same potential issues for the Wildcats.
No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (6:30 p.m. CT on ABC, OU -7.0, O/U 59.5)
The intrigue here is not whether OSU will win or lose....
...because they will most definitely lose...
...but a Sooner win means the Big 12 still has the possibility of SIX teams with identical 6-3 conference records!!! Should the Cowboys somehow miraculously pull off the win, then at the most you end up with five teams at 6-3.
For Cowboy fans it kind of breaks down this way...if OSU loses Bedlam, then the rode to the Big 12 rematch game gets pretty murky. ANY scenario involving 3-4 teams AND OU & Texas is a death blow to their chances. Assuming they don't step on their own "equipment" against TT/TCU/Baylor (I know, HUGE assumption), remove OU and the Cowboys are in. Remove Texas and, well, see below. Sticking with that assumption, any scrum involving 5-6 teams also puts OSU in. A Bedlam win for Oklahoma State is a virtual guarantee, giving them room to stumble once on the way home and still get in.
The real mess would ensue should Iowa State, OSU, and OU end up tied at 7-2. This tiebreaker would depend on one key element...which team is #4 in the conference standings. After that it would depend on whether Iowa State lost to KState, Texas, or West Virginia.
Anyway, I'll take OU to win and cover, and probably the under.
This is the only thing other than a loss that I expect Saturday evening...