Going Bowling: Scenario Season

Welcome to the penultimate Going Bowling/Big 12 Bowl projection post of the season. It’s been a wild ride and we still have a little bit of ways to go before the bowl games are officially announced. Let’s dive into the scenarios first for Oklahoma State and Baylor.

Oklahoma State- Various

Oklahoma State has done it.

The Cowboys have defeated the big bad Oklahoma Sooners and sent Lincoln Riley to Southern California. It feels like two wins for the Cowboys. But in the words of Kobe Bryant, “Job’s not finished.” There is a small list of scenarios that can occur for Oklahoma State... all scenarios include a New Year’s Six Game.

The following scenarios can occur for the Oklahoma State Cowboys

If Oklahoma State wins and makes the playoff: It’s going to be either the Cotton Bowl vs Michigan or Orange Bowl vs Georgia. It depends on what the committee decides to do with Cincinnati. I think Oklahoma State would jump up to #3 if they win the Big 12 Championship and a lackluster performance by Cincinnati but you never know with this committee.

If they beat Baylor but miss the playoff: Sugar Bowl vs Ole Miss

Barring a 2011-esque scenario, with Alabama winning and the committee feeling bad for Notre Dame or something. I think this scenario is very unlikely but just to cover our bases. We’ll put this one here just to be safe.

If they lose to Baylor: Fiesta Bowl vs Michigan State

I think Michigan State has locked in its spot into a New Year’s Six Bowl and I think that bowl is the Fiesta Bowl, Assuming Michigan will make the playoff, Ohio State will likely be the ones going to the Rose Bowl to represent the Big Ten. Michigan State is a top ten team (at least I think they are, so they get this spot right here.) Baylor would go to the Sugar Bowl if they win most likely, but Oklahoma State is still worthy of a New Year’s Six game if they stand at 11-2.

Baylor- The following scenarios can occur for the Baylor Bears

If they beat OSU or Baylor loses and OSU goes to the playoff: Sugar Bowl vs Ole Miss

It appears to be extremely likely that the Bears would end up here win or lose. It’s been a really great season for Baylor that no one expected, as they were predicted to finish 8th in the Big 12 media poll. It appears that win or lose, the Bears will end up here because of the unlikeliness that they will make the playoffs because of they already have two losses on the year.

If they lose to OSU and OSU does not make the playoff: Fiesta Bowl vs Michigan State

Being in the Big 12 Championship is no small feat, and I think there’s a 95% chance Baylor will make a New Year’s Six game. In the event that OSU wins and misses out on the playoffs, OSU would take the Sugar Bowl spot, being the highest ranking Big 12 team remaining, and relegate Baylor to the Fiesta Bowl in a game against Michigan State, who they played in another New Year’s Six game, the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day 2015.

The rest of the teams in the Big 12 are locked in on my projections so the other five Big 12 teams will remain the same in my final bowl projection blog, which will come out before the CFP Selection Show this Sunday.

Oklahoma- Alamo Bowl vs Pac-12 Championship Game loser (Oregon or Utah)

Well, Well, Well. History doesn’t mean jack squat now does it?

The odds of making a New Year’s Six Bowl is unlikely but no worries, you have Big Game Bob Stoops back (for the time being) and... who knows how many players to be honest. The Sooners are still dealing with the fallout of Lincoln Riley leaving for the green grass of Los Angeles. This could be a long year for the Sooners next year... or two. Which Cowboy fans are probably not going to be mad about. The Pac-12 Championship will determine two spots, the winner goes to the Rose Bowl, the loser goes to the Alamo Bowl. Either way, it’ll be a very entertaining matchup.

Iowa State- Cheez-It Bowl vs Clemson

Iowa State is 7-5 and they still have Matt Campbell as a coach... for now and take on another disappointing team (somewhat) in Clemson. This is a really good matchup and I hope we're able to see these two teams in what people would have thought would be a New Year’s Six game back in August.

Kansas State- Liberty Bowl vs Mississippi State

Hey Kansas State, how did you lose to Texas? You do realize that Kansas beat them right? KANSAS?! I mean I know you had nothing to play for but still. A pretty disappointing ending to the season. Speaking of disappointing endings... Mississippi State. You can go here as well.

Texas Tech- Texas Bowl vs Auburn

I’ve kept Texas Tech here since the Red Raiders won their sixth game of the year. Solely for the reason that I’m assuming that the Texas Bowl wants a Texas team. Texas supports Texas! Auburn, I guess you can go here. It would have been nice if you beat Alabama but whatever. Auburn is one of six SEC schools that can go here. It’s a shot in the dark at this point for those SEC bowl bids.

West Virginia- Guaranteed Rate Bowl vs Maryland

CONGRATULATIONS WEST VIRGINIA! YOU MADE A BOWL GAME! We’re happy for you and we wish best of luck in a rematch against Maryland, who beat you by six points at College Park. Here’s to an entertaining rematch! Even though I highly doubt there won’t be a rematch. I think it’s a better matchup than Minnesota.

Teams not making a bowl game

I don’t really need to say too much about these three teams. But congrats on hiring Sonny Dykes, TCU.

TCU, Texas & Kansas

I’ll release my final projections for Oklahoma State and Baylor in a different article following the Big 12 championship game.